Confirming its dominance

In winning the Haryana Assembly election, and emerging as the single largest party by far in Maharashtra, the Bharatiya Janata Party has >demonstrated the ability to expand its support base at the expense of its principal rival at the national level, the Congress. From fighting elections on an anti-Congress platform, the BJP now seems to be in a position to encroach on the national political space occupied by the Congress. The >go-it-alone strategy worked for the BJP in more ways than one. The Congress, which headed the governments in both Maharashtra and Haryana, is not even the second largest party in either of these States. Clearly, the BJP was able to splinter the opposition votes, marginalising the Congress further in the process. In the Lok Sabha election, the BJP adopted a low-risk strategy of tying up with traditional allies like the Shiv Sena and the Akali Dal, and reviving seat-sharing agreements with parties such as the Telugu Desam. If electoral pacts with the Janata Dal (United) in Bihar and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu did not materialise, this was not for want of effort from the BJP’s side. Now, however, after a majority of its own in the Lok Sabha, the party is less risk-averse. The strategy to fight without major allies seems to have paid off very well, though in Maharashtra, where it fell short of a majority, the party might want to revive its ties with the Shiv Sena. With the Nationalist Congress Party offering unconditional support, the BJP knows the limits of the Sena’s bargaining positions. Indeed, the Sena must be regretting it wasn’t more accommodative toward the BJP during the seat negotiations. In its desperation to see its pramukh Uddhav Thackeray as chief minister, the Sena was unable to read the minds of either the BJP leaders or the voters.

However, every election will see a political churning, and the BJP cannot expect the opposition, whether in Maharashtra or in Haryana or in any other State, to remain divided. In Haryana, the party won on the strength of about one-third of the votes; in Maharashtra, the

>vote share was even lower . Now that it has replaced the Congress as the party to beat, the BJP cannot but be wary of the consolidation of opposition votes. What the elections have done for the BJP is increase its ability to dictate terms with prospective allies, not lower its dependence on alliances. The BJP has every reason to be happy about having pushed the Congress to the third place in the two States. But the real challenge for the party is to remain the pole star in a unipolar polity, to grow without bringing the other parties together. That is extremely difficult, not just at the all-India level, but even in any State in India.