Global temperature poised for record rise before 2025

Warming likely to cause more extreme weather events, impact food security, says World Meteorological Organisation

More than 75% of Indian districts are hotspots for extreme climate events. File photo for representation

Before 2025, it is almost certain that the global temperature will hit an all-time high, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

“There is a 90% likelihood of at least one year between 2021-2025 becoming the warmest on record, which would dislodge 2016 from the top ranking,” said a press statement late on Thursday, announcing the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, produced by the United Kingdom’s Met Office, the WMO’s lead centre for such forecasts.

There was also a 2-in-5 chance of the annual average global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level in at least one of the next five years — and these odds are increasing with time, according to the update.

“These are more than just statistics,” WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas said in a statement. “Increasing temperatures mean more melting ice, higher sea levels, more heatwaves and other extreme weather, and greater impacts on food security, health, the environment and sustainable development.”

The chance of temporarily reaching 1.5°C has roughly doubled compared to last year’s predictions and is mainly due to using an improved temperature dataset to estimate the baseline rather than sudden changes in climate indicators, the agency’s press statement noted. However, it was very unlikely (10%) that the 5-year mean annual global temperature for the entire 2021-2025 period will be 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels.

Related reports on warming have warned of such trends in India too. More than 75% of Indian districts are hotspots for extreme climate events. On the east coast, more than 90% of districts, which are home to over 250 million people, are hotspots for cyclones, floods, droughts and their associated events, says a report this year by the Council for Environment, Energy and Water (CEEW). According to a CEEW study, after 2005, the yearly average of the number of districts in India affected by cyclones tripled and the cyclone frequency doubled. In the last decade alone, 258 districts were affected.

Ahead of the monsoon's expected arrival at Kerala on May 31, two severe cyclones — Tauktae and Yaas — have struck India's western and eastern coasts respectively. Though not unusual for this time of the year, climate scientists have said that the seas around India are warmer than normal. This was also fomenting stronger cyclones in the Arabian Sea.