There is rarely a dull moment in West Bengal politics and political parties both in the government and the Opposition always seem to be in election mode. As the ruling Trinamool Congress, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Front and the Congress brace for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the parties are eager to test the political waters in the panchayat polls.
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At a time when the State was expecting an announcement for panchayat polls, the Trinamool leadership launched a two-month-long outreach programme across the north and south of West Bengal. The initiative, ‘Trinamooler Nabo Jowar’ (Trinamool’s new wave), led by the party general secretary and its second-most important leader, Abhishek Banerjee, is not only aimed at reaching out to the masses but also an attempt to seek the opinion of the electorate on deciding the party’s candidates for the panchayat polls. Mr. Banerjee, who began the campaign on Tuesday from Coochbehar in north Bengal, will be on the road for the next two months addressing rallies and meeting party workers, something which his party is describing as an ‘innovative’ step.
In January, West Bengal’s ruling party had launched another outreach programme ‘Didir Suraksha Kawach’ (Didi Protection Shield)’ where ‘Didir Doots’ (Didi’s emissaries) were expected to reach out to the people. The back-to-back outreach initiatives of the Trinamool Congress are a reflection of the party’s desperation to hold on to its political dominance in the State.
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As the 2024 Lok Sabha polls draw near, Trinamool is facing several challenges. A host of scams, particularly the school job scam, have emerged as a major embarrassment for the party with several politicians and officials behind bars. The pro-poor image of the party and its chairperson Mamata Banerjee who projects herself as a ‘symbol of honesty’ has been dented.
The idea of a ‘referendum’ for selecting candidates for the panchayat polls is also an attempt to keep the party flock together as there is a lot of factionalism and lobbying for seats for the local bodies within the party.
Opposition’s win
Another fear that the Trinamool leadership harbours is the split in minority votes. The recent bypoll at Sagardighi in Murshidabad district where the Left Front-supported Congress candidate trumped the Trinamool nominee has led political observers to believe that there is some disillusionment among the minorities against the ruling establishment. The bypoll, in a seat where the Muslim community is in a majority, also emerged as a case study with the Left, the Congress as well as the BJP strategically joining forces to defeat the Trinamool.
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Despite her national ambitions, Ms. Banerjee’s attempt to extend the reach of the Trinamool beyond West Bengal has not paid off. The party has not been able to make any significant impact in the Assembly elections in Goa and Tripura. If Ms. Banerjee has to play a key role in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, she has to win the maximum number of seats in the State she has been ruling for the past 11 years.
The top leadership of the BJP has also started touring the State. Earlier this month, Union Home Minister Amit Shah held a rally in Birbhum and set a target of 35 seats for his party for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. In the 2019 polls, the Trinamool won 22 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP won 18 and the Congress won two seats from West Bengal. However, the third term of the Trinamool Congress government has brought several challenges.
From communal flare-ups during Ram Navami processions a few weeks ago, to the carnage in Bogtui in Birbhum in March 2022, Bengal has been rocked by recurrent incidents of political violence. Trinamool is also feeling the heat of the investigation into the school job scam, cross-border cattle smuggling scam and coal pilferage scam. With the Lok Sabha elections drawing near, different ethnic communities from Darjeeling in the north to Purulia and Paschim Medinipur in the south are trying to regroup and raise demands related to their identity and reservation.
The politics in the State is in a flux and the Trinamool’s repeated outreach programmes are an attempt to consolidate its support base, particularly in north Bengal and southwest Bengal where it drew a blank in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
shivsahay.s@thehindu.co.in