At a time when some world leaders strain to hide their disdain for U.S. President Donald Trump, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has become Mr. Trump’s golfing buddy, phone friend and staunch supporter. This trans-Pacific bromance is only set to deepen during Mr. Trump’s first official trip to Asia (November 5-17), which will begin with a three-day stop in Japan.
His itinerary includes meetings with the Emperor and Piko-Taro, the singer of the viral ditty, “Pen-Pineapple-Apple-Pen”. But the significance of the visit lies elsewhere. It will underscore the close alliance between Japan and the U.S. at a time of shifting geopolitical sands in Japan’s neighbourhood. Fresh from confirming President Xi Jinping as its undisputed leader, an ascendant China is reshaping the strategic topography of Asia, while North Korea continues to test missiles and threaten nuclear catastrophe.
Mr. Trump has thus far lacked a clearly articulated Asia policy. How he plans to replace, or renew, the “pivot” to Asia, a cornerstone of his predecessor Barak Obama’s foreign policy, remains unclear. This visit provides an opportunity for a coherent exposition of what the U.S. intends for the region. But it needs to be watched most of all for indications of how far Mr. Abe is willing, and able, to guide Mr. Trump’s policies in Asia.
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Confusing signals
Consistency is not Mr. Trump’s strong suit. In the past, he has sent out erratic signals, which have been confusing to many Japanese. On the campaign trail he fingered the U.S. trade deficit with Japan (which stands at more than $68 billion) as an example of American industrial weakness. He suggested that Tokyo pick up a greater proportion of the bill for the U.S. military facilities it hosts. And he pulled the U.S. out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal, causing a loss of face to Mr. Abe who had expended considerable political capital in committing Japan to it.
Nonetheless, Mr. Abe continued to court Mr. Trump, becoming the first world leader to visit him in New York while he was still President-elect, joining him on the golf course in Florida, and chatting with him on the phone up to four times a week. Mr. Abe has spoken to Mr. Trump more often this year than he did with Mr. Obama over the last four years of his presidency. This strategy has largely paid off, blunting U.S. trade criticism of Japan and eliciting explicit commitment to Japan’s defence.
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There now appears to be little danger of Japan’s greatest fear — being abandoned by the U.S. to its own military devices — coming to pass. Mr. Trump has reiterated strong support for the U.S.-Japan alliance and his harsh rhetoric on Pyongyang’s weapons testing is in consonance with Mr. Abe’s own hawkish position.
Dealing with North Korea
The ironic challenge that has emerged for Mr. Abe is to rein in Mr. Trump’s enthusiasm for standing up to North Korea. In recent months, Mr. Trump has engaged in a rhetorical duel with North Korea’s leader, including calling him “Rocket Man” in a speech to the United Nations General Assembly this September and thundering that the U.S. was ready to “totally destroy” the country.
But, were a verbal escalation to lead to actual military strikes, the first in the line of fire would be Japan, rather than the U.S. The Japanese are generally pacifist and have scant appetite for brinkmanship. North Korea has proved that its missiles can reach Japanese cities (and U.S. bases in Japan) within minutes of being launched.
Therefore, Mr. Abe’s attempt will be to use the U.S President’s visit to ensure that he remains tough, but not too tough, a delicate line to tread. He will need to play a similar, tempering role in relation to Mr. Trump’s China policies. Although Mr. Abe does not want Beijing to emerge as the regional hegemon, a U.S. trade war with China will disrupt global supply chains and cause economic instability, with adverse spillover effects for Japan.
Mr. Trump appears to distrust multilateral fora, preferring to deal with nations on a bilateral basis. In contrast, Japan is acutely aware of its limitations when acting alone, and is actively seeking multiple partnerships. Tokyo is not only trying to revive the TPP, even without U.S. participation, but has also recently suggested a quadrilateral top-level dialogue between Japan, the U.S., India and Australia to promote open trade and security cooperation.
Mr. Abe’s embrace of, and success in this role as Mr. Trump’s moderating, alliance-building guide to the region can be crucial in determining the outcome of global politics. The million yen question is whether Mr. Abe is capable of going from courting Mr. Trump to shaping him.
Pallavi Aiyar has reported from China, Europe, Indonesia and Japan. She is a Young Global Leader with the World Economic Forum