Nigeria has just had its general election, its sixth since its return to democracy. Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) defeated his closest rival, Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), by about four million votes. Despite pre-election promises of accepting the result, Mr. Abubakar has rejected the results, calling the election a “sham” and “militarised” and deciding to question it in court. There were 73 registered candidates in the fray. There are 91 registered political parties.
Election data
With a population of nearly 200 million, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa, accounting for 47% of west Africa’s population. It comprises more than 300 ethnic groups. The numbers of Muslims and Christians are almost equal though the first seem to be politically dominant. Although 82.3 million voters were registered and their Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) made, 11.2 million were not collected, denying over 13% of all registered voters an opportunity to vote. Though the observer missions found the register of voters to be generally robust, I feel the figure of 41% registered voters to be disproportionate to the total population. In India, nearly 62% of the population is registered as voters.
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Unlike India, counting is done in the polling stations but the results are collated and declared at collation centres. It took seven days to announce the results of the presidential election while the collation of National Assembly elections is still going on.
A federal republic with a presidential form of government, Nigeria has a bicameral National Assembly comprising the 109-member Senate and 360-member House of Representatives, both elected for four years. The country has 36 states (besides the Federal Capital Territory), each with an elected governor and a legislative assembly.
It is Africa’s biggest oil exporter and has the largest natural gas reserves in the continent. Yet it ranks near the bottom of UNDP’s Human Development Report, 2017, ranking 157 in 189 countries.
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The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has enormous power and independence and is considered to be neutral and credible. Each state has a resident electoral commissioner, all appointed through a process of parliamentary ratification. When asked what his most important concerns were, INEC Chairman Mahmood Yakubu had mentioned security, fake news and hate speech, followed by 640 pending court cases and expenditure control.
Gaps in this poll
Despite the experience of two good elections of 2011 and 2015 and assurances given by the INEC, the management of elections was fraught with all kinds of flaws. First, there was the last-minute postponement of the poll by a week, just six hours before its commencement, because of the collapse of logistics. This created extreme anger across the nation apart from causing enormous economic loss (estimated at $10-25 billion). Then, despite the week’s deferment, there were delays not only in the distribution of materials but also late arrival of polling staff, causing a late opening of polling stations. This in turn led to many procedures not being adhered to. Voting booths were often located too close to polling officials, polling agents and voters waiting to vote, potentially compromising the secrecy of the ballot.
The elections were also marred by sporadic incidents of violence before and on election day, besides destruction of voting materials, ballot-box snatching and bribing of voters. At least 39 people were killed in election-related violence. However, the death toll this time has been lower than in previous national elections.
Abrupt postponement, delays and chaos at polling stations and the violence, all contributed to the lowest ever turnout — 35.6%, down from 44% in 2015. In Lagos, there were only 1.1 million valid votes (just above 5% voted. Further, polling officials, security staff and other essential services personnel were unable to vote and were, therefore, deprived of their vote. There was also widespread failure of smart card readers as polling officials awaited technical assistance or replacements, compounding the problems.
Despite the complaints of ‘militarisation’, police presence was generally discreet and helpful to the electoral process. A coalition of more than 70 civic organisations monitored the elections, which enhanced the credibility of the elections.
Connecting with India
Nigeria is of great interest to India, being its biggest trading partner. Over 135 Indian companies have a footprint in Nigeria, including the State Bank of India, New India Assurance and Mecon in the public sector and Bharti Airtel, Tata, Bajaj, Birla, Kirloskar and Mahindra in the private sector. The number of Indians is relatively small — about 50,000. Though we have substantial economic interests, there are no political favourites. But as the world’s largest democracy, India has great interest in the success of the largest democracy of Africa. While the election commissions of the two countries have regular interactions and many officials have visited the flagship institution, the India International Institute of Democracy and Election Management, there is need for enhanced engagement.
S.Y. Quraishi is a former Chief Election Commissioner of India and the editor of ‘The Great March of Democracy: Seven Decades of India’s Elections’. He was a member of the Commonwealth Observer Group