A dream that could upset the BRS apple cart Premium

How the AIMIM could play spoilsport for the BRS and the Congress

File photo of AIMIM floor leader Akbaruddin Owaisi in Hyderabad. | Photo Credit: GIRI K.V.S.

The spat between Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) Minister K.T. Rama Rao and All-India Majlis-e-Ittehadul-Muslimeen (AIMIM) floor leader Akbaruddin Owaisi in the Telangana Assembly last week would have been considered routine but for Mr. Owaisi’s remark that his party will contest 50 seats in the upcoming Assembly elections and win at least 15.

This surprised political circles as the AIMIM has been seen as a close ally of the BRS since the bifurcation of united Andhra Pradesh. Also, the remark comes at a time when the BRS is making its foray into national politics with the aim of emerging as a strong opposition party to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at the Centre. The AIMIM has always taken an anti-BJP stand. Its leaders openly air their reservations about the ruling party at the Centre in a bid to emerge as the champions of the cause of minorities across the country. Though the AIMIM and BRS have never struck an alliance, the AIMIM has always had an understanding with the ruling dispensation, whether it is led by the Congress or the BRS.

Since 2013, the AIMIM has been trying to expand its base outside Hyderabad by contesting Assembly elections, but without much success. In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, the party won five seats. But last year, four of its MLAs switched over to the Rashtriya Janata Dal. In the 2022 Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat elections, the AIMIM’s performance was dismal. In both States, its candidates drew a blank and its vote share was less than one per cent. But the AIMIM’s presence badly hit other major opposition parties such as the Congress, the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party. The AIMIM has won elections to civic bodies in many States, but has failed to convert these victories into seats in Assembly and Lok Sabha elections.

It is amid this poor showing that Mr. Owaisi has challenged the ruling party in Telangana. But BRS leaders are unfazed. “If the AIMIM wants to contest the elections this year, it will only benefit the BJP, as was the case in other States,” a BRS leader said. For this reason, the AIMIM is sometimes referred to by some leaders as the ‘B team’ of the BJP.

The AIMIM has always contested from seats where it is sure to win. The Old City of Hyderabad is its home turf. In 2018, it contested eight seats and won seven. The party has two MLCs in the Legislative Council and Mr. Owaisi’s brother, Asaduddin Owaisi, represents the Hyderabad parliamentary constituency.

The AIMIM contested only 50 out of the 150 divisions in the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation elections three years ago. It won 45 seats. It extended outside support to the BRS, which won in 56 divisions. The TRS-MIM combine ensured that the post of Mayor went to the ruling party. The BJP made impressive gains in the same polls.

Telangana has 119 Assembly seats. Twenty-five constituencies are in the twin cities and their suburbs spread across the Medchal Malkajgiri and Ranga Reddy districts. In the House now, the BRS has 102 members, the AIMIM has seven, the Congress has five, the BJP three, and the All India Forward Bloc, one. One seat is held by an Independent candidate and one MLA is nominated from the Anglo-Indian community. If the AIMIM is serious about fighting the elections in 50 seats, it can at the most bag minority votes in only 29 Assembly constituencies. The majority of these lie in the twin cities and their suburbs. The AIMIM’s influence is confined to certain urban pockets of north and south Telangana, but it is inadequate to win elections. The AIMIM has failed to cultivate rural voters. It has always indicated to its cadres that they must vote for parties that are opposed to the BJP if AIMIM candidates are not in the fray.

If the AIMIM tests its luck in 50 seats, the BRS and Congress may feel the pinch in some constituencies. This may upset the BRS’s apple cart and deal a body blow to the Congress, which banks on securing the votes of minorities. The BJP too may not gain much as Telangana has never seen mass communal polarisation on the eve of elections.

Since 2018, the AIMIM has indirectly supported the BRS in electoral battles outside Hyderabad. Its recent decision could have an impact on the BRS’s performance since minority votes, which were going to the ruling party, could be split. The AIMIM could play spoilsport for the BRS and the Congress as it is not in a position to win seats by consolidating Muslim votes.