Delhi’s long wait for an elected government is likely to end soon with the dissolution of the Assembly constituted last year. When Lt. Governor Najeeb Jung, under pressure from the Supreme Court, held discussions with political parties on forming a government, the end result was predictable: failure. Given the numbers in the House and the proclivities of the parties, no group was likely to be able to command a majority. What was inexplicable was the reluctance to complete quickly the process of exhausting the possibilities of forming a government and pave the way for fresh election. Without the Supreme Court’s questioning of the delay, on the basis of a petition from the Aam Aadmi Party, the political impasse in Delhi might have continued for some more time. Once the BJP came to power at the Centre, and it could rule Delhi by proxy under President’s Rule, the focus seemed to have shifted from having an elected government in place to delaying a fresh election to the extent possible. The political calculations of the BJP seemed to have entered the Centre’s decision-making process on this issue. Dissolution of the Assembly and the conduct of polls were inevitable, but the inevitable was delayed for political reasons rather than on the constitutional question of determining if government-formation was possible from out of the existing Assembly.
With the revision of electoral rolls already under way in Delhi, and January 1, 2015 being the qualifying date for the inclusion of new voters attaining the age of 18 years, the election to the Assembly is likely only early next year. Although the elections to Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand are spread over five phases and will go on till December 20, Delhi cannot be clubbed with them. The BJP did succeed in putting off the election for some months, but the party will now need to concentrate on beating back the challenge of the AAP. Despite its political histrionics, the AAP is a big player in small arenas, and the BJP cannot expect an effortless repeat of the Lok Sabha election results in the Assembly. Though the BJP is a clear favourite, with the AAP being widely perceived as having run away from governing when given the opportunity, it would need to come up with a viable model for cheaper and more efficient delivery of services to the citizens of Delhi. The AAP might not have fulfilled any of its promises during its 49 days in power, but the party did showcase its brand of populism in that short period. With the Congress having ceded ground to both the BJP and the AAP, many of the constituencies would see a straight contest. The BJP’s strategy may well be to run the election campaign around larger issues with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at its heart, rather than relate it to Delhi alone.