Sometime in 2005, goes the story at the Indian Embassy in Beijing, the then Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi got in touch as he wanted to visit China and study business and investment opportunities. The Ministry of External Affairs in Delhi was cold to the idea, given the taint of the Gujarat riots of 2002, while the Embassy was unsure of what kind of protocol Mr. Modi could receive as no dignitary was available to meet him.
Mr. Modi’s reply startled them as he said his was a “study tour,” and if they wished to, they could treat it as a personal visit. Officials describe how Mr. Modi arrived a few months later, on his own, armed with only a notebook and pen. Gujarati businessmen helped open a few doors for him, but for the most part Mr. Modi travelled to state capitals and economic zones like Shenzhen, taking furious notes. At the end of his visit, Mr. Modi said that he had been struck by three things — the importance of economic diplomacy, the marvel of urban planning (his plan for the Sabarmati riverfront possibly came from here), and the fact that China was hampered most by the lack of spoken English in the country.
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However, while Mr. Modi’s task will be to focus on bailing India out of its current economic crisis, it would be a mistake to ignore the massive shifts the world has undergone while India was caught up in election fever — to begin with, the situation in Ukraine, a lightning rod for what is now called “Cold War 2.0” between the U.S. and Russia. While the unrest in the country may ease up after the presidential elections, and the impending withdrawal of Russian troops from the Ukraine border, there are even more far-reaching consequences for the new Indian administration to study. Russia’s annexation of Crimea has not only changed the map in the most dramatic way possible, but has also changed power structures in the world, with Russian President Vladimir Putin gaining the upper hand. In their campaign against Russia at the U.N., U.S. and European Union officials have warned that Mr. Putin’s actions hold a dangerous precedent for India too, especially when it comes to possible designs by China on parts of Arunachal Pradesh. Conversely, the actions of western diplomats and U.S. non-governmental organisations in Ukraine, who openly supported anti-Russian protesters to oust their government while attempting to pull Ukraine into the EU, is also a dangerous precedent for the world. Mr. Modi will face his first look at all these new realities in mid-July, when he meets Mr. Putin at the BRICS summit in Brazil, and when the world, especially the U.S. and EU countries, will be watching his statements.
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Perhaps the most significant discussion at the BRICS summit, however, will be over West Asia, and nuclear talks between Iran and six world powers (the U.S., the United Kingdom, France, Germany, China and Russia) that hope to reach some conclusion in July. If the talks succeed, it could rewrite history, given the far-reaching consequences on the oil economy, nuclear energy and Arab-Persian rivalry in a region that houses and employs six million Indians. The talks so far have been ignored in the din of the election, but repercussions, including the anger of U.S. allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia, will have an impact on South Asia as well.
Finally, there are all the significant developments in India’s neighbourhood — Afghanistan’s historic elections that will possibly confirm front runner Dr. Abdullah Abdullah’s victory in June; Pakistan’s talks with the Taliban, and the rise in attacks on the media.
Inviting all South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) leaders to Mr. Modi’s swearing-in is certainly a nice touch to start with, and hopefully heralds India’s re-engagement with a world it has effectively shut out during nine months of what has perhaps been its longest campaign. For Mr. Modi, unlike his experience of 2005, the welcome mat is no longer a problem, but the new Indian Prime Minister may want to keep that notebook and pen handy as he sets out to deal with new realities in the world order.
(Suhasini Haidar is Diplomatic Editor, The Hindu.)