Politics is said to be akin to a game of chess but in Pakistan it took on the contours of a Rubik's cube over the past fortnight as speculation on a regime change — orchestrated or ordained by the military, possibly with some help from the Supreme Court — seemingly assumed a life of its own.
Figuratively, at least, the “opinion-makers” appeared to have taken to the Rubik's cube with gusto: various permutations and combinations were bandied about to find an alternative to the ruling dispensation while maintaining the façade of democracy.
Seasoned watchers of Pakistan's domestic politics maintain this is nothing new. It is almost seasonal. In fact, some call it the two-year-itch whenever a democratically elected government is in place. And this government has already completed 30 months — the longest any democratically elected regime has since the one led by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in the early 1970s.
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The only difference was this time the all-too-familiar talk of regime change was not just confined to drawing-room buzz in a country prone to conspiracy theories but became the dominant narrative, courtesy 24x7 news networks. Loaded statements and knowing glances became the order of the day as people who claimed to know the script left sentences unfinished, leaving the air thick with mystery and a craving among others to know more.
Led by the media, the speculation thickened as it spread because of the general belief that the fourth estate was itself being prodded in a certain direction, so much so that journalists appeared to be the cheerleaders for change even if it meant serenading the readers on a return to a military rule packaged in civilian clothes. Never an easy person to defend, President Asif Ali Zardari was the one they were after. If, in the process, the fledgling democracy fell by the wayside — yet again — so be it. That was the general drift. The voices of reason of uncompromising advocates of democracy had little impact.
So authoritative were media reports in their prediction of Pakistan on the verge of a precipice because of its present crop of rulers and so uniform was the cacophony from rival media houses that it was not just scribes but also politicians who were taken in by the rhetoric. And slowly, but surely, the unanimous condemnation that Muttahida Qaumi Movement leader Altaf Hussain's invitation to patriotic generals to take “martial law-type action against corrupt politicians and feudal lords” attracted in August began to unravel a fortnight later. The former President, Pervez Musharraf, began to emerge as a poster boy for the pro-changers three years after his ouster.
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Pir Pagara, leader of the Pakistan Muslim League (Functional) — one of the many PML factions that dot this country's political firmament — became a daily fixture on television networks. Regarded as a prop of the military — Pir Pagara is reported as referring to himself as a “representative of GHQ” (the military headquarters) — the PML (F) suddenly developed a magnetic field with the PML (Quaid) merging with it.
Others drawn to this magnetic field included Musharraf-regime Minister Sheikh Rashid of the Awami Muslim League and the former President's spokesman, Rashid Qureshi. While the thrust was on getting all PML factions together, the PML flag-bearer — led by the former Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif — did not reveal its cards. Now there is talk of cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan toying with the idea of joining the Pir Pagara-led alliance.
Curiously, the PML unification drive has sought to call itself the All Pakistan Muslim League (APML) — the name General Musharraf chose for his party launched on October 1. The party, according to Maj. Gen. Qureshi (retired), approached the Election Commission in March itself for registrationas APML.
Simultaneously, Article 190 of the Constitution was flagged. Again, the cat was set among the pigeons by the MQM. When MQM leader Mustafa Kamal first brought up Article 190 in a televised discussion to show how the Army could be called to intervene within the ambit of the Constitution, he had the anchor scrambling for the supreme law book of the land.
Article 190 states that all executive and judicial authorities throughout Pakistan shall act in aid of the Supreme Court. Given the friction between the government — particularly the presidency — and the Supreme Court over a slew of issues, including reopening cases in Swiss courts against Mr. Zardari, the President's detractors latched on to this provision to call for judicial intervention in the hope of ushering in a regime change.
As the stand-off between the government and the judiciary became sharper — according to the media, it was expected to reach a point of no return this past Monday — and as Mr. Sharif said he would always side with the Supreme Court if push came to shove, the first signs of panic could be seen in the ruling dispensation.
Within Parliament, which is in session, and outside, Prime Minister Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani sought to secure across-the-floor commitments to democracy while maintaining that his government was not going anywhere. Brave words, indeed, given the all-round flak the government has been attracting for its poor performance — laid bare during the floods that everyone concedes were of a proportion unmanageable by any government alone anywhere.
Despite the show of confidence, the Pakistan People's Party's organisational structure was activated with a series of meetings convened by Mr. Zardari, in which the party was apparently asked to prepare for any eventuality. Simultaneously, with the Supreme Court accepting the government's plea for more time to implement its December 2009 verdict overturning the amnesty law, National Reconciliation Ordinance, PPP seniors are working on the premise that neither the judiciary nor the military wants to derail the democratic system.
“Both take pains to emphasise that they don't want to derail the democratic process, regardless of their distinct perspectives on various issues. Had there been any doubt in the above, there would have been no back-channel with the judiciary and no publicly declared meetings with the military to exchange views on arising situations and dealing with them in unison by developing greater understandings,” is what PPP managers in the government maintain.
In particular, they point to the statement put out after the much-talked-about meeting of the “troika” — Mr. Zardari, Mr. Gilani and Chief of the Army Staff Ashfaq Parvez Kayani — last Monday in which all three are supposed to have resolved to “protect and defend” the democratic process.
“This is a new democracy working against decades-old history of institutional mistrust and problems. Please give it some credit for respecting everyone and taking everyone along under the toughest of circumstances, despite getting a lot of unwarranted flak from an impatient media,” is yet another PPP refrain.
And, its main consolation is drawn from the prevailing state of affairs. “For all this hyper talk of ‘change,' who in their right mind would want to take charge of a state of affairs in which delivery is as tough as nails? Wouldn't it be better to have this government deal with all the dirt and get bogged down in the process so that by 2013, things would be calmer and more exciting to take charge of?”
While the government got a breather this week, the weekend will see another flurry of speculation with Gen. Musharraf's party launched, while the man himself makes his moves from London and via the social networking site, Facebook. Giving a clarion call of “Pakistan First” and signing off as “PM” — for Pervez Musharraf or Prime Minister, take your pick — the former President says this is the start of his comeback to Pakistan in time for the next general elections.
But, in the din of it all, governance — the lack of which provided legitimacy to some erstwhile flag-bearers of democracy to push for change with military help on the premise that ends justify the means — seems to have taken a back seat. The floods might have receded but the millions rendered destitute have fallen off the radar.
In the crucial reconstruction phase, the floods no longer make it to the headlines as politicking takes precedence. And, instead of taking the government to task for all its ills and making it perform, conspiracy theories and concrete plans — call it what you will, as the truth probably lies somewhere in between — have kept the ruling dispensation engaged in a fight for survival.
Footnote: Arshad Sami Khan, Chief of Protocol of Benazir Bhutto and father of Adnan Sami, recalls in his book Three Presidents and an aide: Life, Power & Politics that he got the first inkling of her imminent ouster when a relative came to borrow his sherwani for Ghulam Mustafa Jatoi for the swearing-in ceremony later in the afternoon!