Khadga Prasad Oli of the Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist-Leninist) has been elected >Nepal’s 38th Prime Minister by legislators in the Constituent Assembly. What has made the occasion momentous is the fact that he is the first Prime Minister of the republic of Nepal after an elected CA had adopted a popular Constitution. Considering that Mr. Oli was seen as a leader from among those who were less than exuberant about the peace-building and state restructuring processes that guided Nepal’s transition from monarchy to republic, it is remarkable that he is at the helm now. This has come at a time when the country has finally managed to complete the long-drawn Constitution-writing process — notwithstanding some critical flaws that remain in it. These flaws are what have impelled the plains-dwellers, the Madhesis, to agitate to seek amendments that would ensure a fair deal to them in terms of federal restructuring and constituency demarcation, among other issues. The Indian establishment’s support to this demand had drawn a predictable nationalist response from political parties that have their leadership dominated by those from the hills. This reaction also in a way propelled >the victory of Mr. Oli , who sought to use this “nationalist” impulse to spur his candidacy. Nothing else explains the Nepali Maoists, the former royalists and the UML having got together to elect Mr. Oli, pipping Sushil Koirala of the Nepali Congress to the post. Many in Nepal’s political class have often swung towards “anti-India nationalism” to whip up support for themselves, even as they relied on India to advance their own interests at expedient moments.
India’s response to the recent protests in the Terai region might be a consequence of its discomfort with the instability spilling over into Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, but the not-so-subtle economic coercion being used on the border could definitely have been avoided. Any such action in the nature of what Kathmandu terms an economic blockade will only end up stoking ultra-nationalist impulses. Such an outcome will not help the domestic processes that would otherwise normally play themselves out. To India’s credit, >Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated his counterpart for his election , while expressing the hope that Mr. Oli would “carry all sections of society along, so that there is peace and stability”. This is a subtle and well-thought-out message to the Nepal government to work towards addressing the disaffection in the Terai. In sending such a message, Mr. Modi avoided any possibility of it being misinterpreted as interference in Nepal’s domestic affairs. Mr. Oli indeed has his task cut out.