The alarm call sounded by Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani of a conspiracy to oust his government has brought out in the open the rift between Pakistan's elected civilian government and the military. As long as this was confined to whispers in the corridor, there was a possibility that the differences could be papered over. Chances of this are now slim. A public denial by the Army chief, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, of a coup in the making and his pledge of support to the democratic process have failed to clear the air. A military takeover does seem unlikely — the Pakistan Army has learnt that coups work badly for it in the long run. Moreover, General Kayani and the ISI chief, Lt. General Shuja Pasha, both on extended tenures, are hardly popular in the prevailing anti-American environment marked by their failure to prevent U.S. military incursions, notably to kill Osama bin Laden. But the military's loathing for President Asif Ali Zardari could still see it manoeuvring against him through other means. The opening could come from the Supreme Court, which is considering a petition by the Pakistan Muslim League (N) leader, Nawaz Sharif, asking it to investigate ‘memogate'. This is the controversy stirred up by a Pakistani-American businessman's allegation that, on behalf of the Pakistan government, he carried a ‘memo' to a top American general asking for help to stave off a possible military coup in the aftermath of the Osama raid. Mr. Zardari's opponents, including former cricketer Imran Khan, blame him for this ‘conspiracy' against the Pakistan military. The Army has added its voice to the demand that the Supreme Court hear the case. But Prime Minister Gilani's extraordinary speech makes it clear there can be no selective removal — if the President goes, the government will go too. That would precipitate a political crisis much worse than the present standoff.
Unfortunately, Pakistan will continue to be politically unstable as long as its civilian-military relations remain weighted in favour of the latter. For the region and the world, that means negotiating relations with Islamabad will stay complicated. Indeed, one reason for the present turmoil is the struggle between the Pakistan People's Party government and the military on who will reset relations with the U.S. after the killing of 24 Pakistani soldiers on the Afghan border by NATO. For New Delhi, which recently restarted dialogue with Islamabad after more than two years of a ‘pause' over the 2008 Mumbai attacks, the priority is to ensure that the turmoil in Pakistan does not pose any security risks for India and that constructive bilateral engagement can go on despite the political uncertainty across the border.