Cash and churn: on the R.K. Nagar bypoll result

The result of the R.K. Nagar by-election spells political instability for Tamil Nadu

Sometimes a war can be won only by withdrawing from a battlefront. The real surprise in the R.K. Nagar Assembly by-election in Tamil Nadu was not the victory of the rebel AIADMK candidate T.T.V. Dhinakaran , contesting as an independent, but the third- place finish of the DMK candidate Marudu Ganesh. Instead of benefiting from the split in the AIADMK support base, the DMK appears to have suffered a huge erosion in its vote bank. There is no obvious explanation for the poor showing; not even the alleged cash distribution by the two AIADMK groups can account for the sudden dip in the DMK’s share of the vote resulting in the candidate forfeiting his deposit. But it may be worth keeping in mind that winning the seat would have meant nothing for the DMK, whether in the short term or in the long term. What the runaway victory of Mr. Dhinakaran does is sow the seeds of confusion in the ranks of the AIADMK; it even has the potential to bring down the government led by Edappadi K. Palaniswami. Many of the MLAs and MPs in the ruling faction of the AIADMK owe their allegiance to Mr. Dhinakaran and the Sasikala family. But they chose to back Mr. Palaniswami only because they did not want mid-term Assembly elections, and they were not sure of the voter acceptability of the Sasikala family. Thus, the R.K. Nagar result could set off another round of churn in the AIADMK; many of the MLAs may now see the Sasikala family as the only force that could keep the party together and command wider voter support. The worst-case scenario for the DMK was a victory for the official AIADMK candidate E. Madhusudhanan. That would have strengthened the hands of Chief Minister Palaniswami, and ensured the continuance of his government. The Dhinakaran victory may be a loss in the immediate term, but for the DMK it could be a blessing in the medium term, allowing it a shot at returning to power through a mid-term election.

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As for the ruling AIADMK faction though, it will have to deal with the consequences of this political setback. Despite having won the battle for the party name and the election symbol, the fight for political legitimacy is far from over. Once the Dhinakaran faction attains a critical mass, the ruling camp may see desertions on a large scale. Clearly, fielding the elderly and feeble Mr. Madhusudhanan against Mr. Dhinakaran was a bad idea. And although the official group tried its best to match Mr. Dhinakaran in electioneering, the voters opted for the opportunity to set off a political churn. The ruling faction of the AIADMK spent too much time putting out the internal fires in the party and too little on governance. The result in R.K. Nagar might not be the final word on the political legitimacy of the Sasikala family, but the voters have surely set Tamil Nadu on the path of a prolonged period of political instability.