President Ali Abdullah Saleh, the strongman who has ruled Yemen for 32 years, is resisting all demands by a growingly popular opposition coalition, the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP), to step down immediately. Following the death of 52 people in shooting by government loyalists in the capital, Sanaa, Mr. Saleh has imposed a 30-day state of emergency. He has promised a “constitutional” transfer of power at the end of the year. He seems untroubled by the resignation of several Ministers, provincial governors, and diplomats over the shootings. Even the backing given by many senior military officers to the people's uprising has made little difference to his obduracy. Protesters say the defections enable them to ignore the President's warnings of a long civil war. But the leader's confidence in his capacity to retain office seems undiminished.
The reasons for the President's intransigence almost certainly lie in the nature of the Yemeni state. The country, unusually for the region, has universal franchise for all citizens over 18 and also elects a 301-seat House of Representatives, which currently includes a woman. But Mr. Saleh has consistently evaded the task of creating the institutions of a modern democratic state – the very thing ordinary people throughout North Africa and West Asia are demanding now. The elected chamber co-exists with a presidentially appointed and manipulated 111-member Shura Council. As though this were not enough, Mr. Saleh has been adept at playing rival tribes against one another to sustain his power base. This makes it difficult even for high-profile defectors, such as General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, to carry credibility with the public, as he has been involved in the brutal repression of Shia Zaidis in northern Yemen and is tainted by his long membership of a venal political elite. Now, however, it is clear that the strongman cannot rule, and the people of Yemen are not willing to be ruled, in the old way. Inspired and encouraged by the success of the popular ‘revolutions' in Tunisia and Egypt, ordinary Yemens want to throw off the authoritarian yoke and win for themselves basic freedoms in a modern democratic polity. It is not at all clear when and how Mr. Saleh's heavy-handed rule will end but when it does, his successors must cope with tough problems — an al-Qaeda presence, even if it is small, tribal rivalries, and socio-economic challenges, starting with an unemployment rate of about 35 per cent.
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