The arrest of Mohammed Nasheed, former President of the Maldives, was not unexpected. He and his Maldivian Democratic Party had seen it coming and had appealed to the international community, including New Delhi, to prevent it. A delegation of the MDP visited the Indian capital a week before the arrest but got no official hearing. The charismatic Mr. Nasheed, the main face of the Maldivian opposition, was charged under anti-terrorism laws for the arrest of a judge back in 2012 when he was President, a few days after the original charges against him were dropped. The government of President Abdulla Yameen insists that the arrest was necessary to prevent Mr.Nasheed from absconding. Coming in the backdrop of attempts by the Maldivian opposition to unseat Mr. Yameen, there is no disguising the political overtones to the arrest. The MDP, which sees itself unjustly ousted from power in 2012 through what Mr. Nasheed has alleged was a ‘coup’ against him, did try to extract advantage from the differences in the ruling coalition, demanding that Mr. Yameen hand over power to a disgruntled ally. There was talk of impeachment proceedings against the President, who is a brother of the former dictator Maumoon Abdul Gayoom. The government’s reaction to a political threat is a throwback to its bad old Gayoom days when all opposition was effectively silenced with incarceration. Mr. Nasheed, denied legal representation after his arrest, now finds himself back in the familiar surroundings of the Dhoonidhoo Island Detention Centre where he spent several years during the Gayoom dictatorship and was internationally upheld as a ‘prisoner of conscience’. If convicted, he could be barred from contesting the next presidential elections.
The arrest of Mr. Nasheed has sparked protests in the Maldives, and worldwide concern at the country’s regression. There is international concern that the continuing unrest in the small chain of islands in the Indian Ocean could provide a setting in which extremist Islamist groups could find a ready foothold. New Delhi has expressed its concern a bit belatedly, some would say. It has now urged that there be a resolution of differences “within the constitutional and legal framework” of the country. Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears to be mulling a postponement of a stopover in the Maldives after a visit to Sri Lanka in mid-March. Given that India is keen to assert its strategic presence in the Indian Ocean region, it should not worry that this postponement would push Maldives closer to Beijing but convey a strong signal of its concern over the increasing volatility of the situation there.