Three Lok Sabha by-polls on March 11 in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar – the two states with 120 seats that helped the BJP win a majority in 2014 – will offer a peek into how the key contestants are faring in these populous states ahead of the next general elections.
The two seats in UP – Gorakhpur and Phulpur – have fallen vacant as the BJP’s 2014 winners here – Yogi Adityanath and Keshav Prasad Maurya – are now the Chief Minister and Deputy Chief Minister respectively.
In Bihar, the Araria seat fell vacant with the death of Rashtriya Janata Dal strongman Mohammed Taslimuddin.
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In what may be bad news for hopes of a grand opposition alliance in UP against the BJP in 2019, the SP and Congress have failed to close ranks here.
Announced on Monday, the names of the BJP’s candidates in UP suggest an attempt to balance caste and political rivalries in the state.
In Gorakhpur, the party has fielded its region head Upendra Shukla, a Brahmin, to defend the seat that Yogi Adityanath, the head of the Gorakhnath Peeth, won for it five times.
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Significantly, Mr. Shukla is considered close to Union minister Shiv Pratap Shukla, with whom Mr. Adityanath has had a history of political rivalry.
Mr. Shukla’s candidature is being seen as an attempt to reach out to Brahmins, an influential caste in the region. Together accounting for about 19% of UP’s population, Brahmins and Thakurs have been seen as influential and competing groups in the state.
The SP has fielded Praveen Nishad from Gorakhpur, seeking to add the most backward caste’s support to its Yadav and Muslim votes. Mr. Nishad is son of Sanjay Nishad, founder of Nishad Party, an ally of the SP.
In Phulpur, which the BJP won for the first time in 2014 on the Modi wave, the party has fielded former Varanasi mayor Kaushalendra Singh Patel, an OBC Kurmi leader and an organisation man.
The SP has fielded Nagendra Singh Patel, another Kurmi, on this seat where all winners from 1984 to 1999 were Kurmis.
Phulpur, once the constituency of India’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, comprises Allahabad’s urban upper caste bastions and sizeable rural OBC voters. The Congress is also in the fray in both Phulpur and Gorakhpur, rendering the opposition a divided house.
In Bihar, the RJD has fielded Sarfaraz Alam, son of late MP Mr. Taslimuddin, to take on the BJP’s Pradeep Singh in Araria, which has a powerful Muslim population.
In 2014, Mr. Taslimuddin had defeated Mr. Singh by 2.65 lakh votes.
While the RJD is hoping to gain from a sympathy wave for Mr. Taslimddin, Bihar BJP leaders claim the combined votes of BJP and JD(U), alongside a Hindu-Muslim polarisation, can facilitate a victory for Mr. Singh.
In the Jehanabad Assembly by-poll, rendered necessary by the death of the RJD’s Mundrika Singh Yadav, the party has fielded his son Kumar Krishna Mohan Suday Yadav against the JD(U)’s Abhiram Sharma.
On the Bhabua seat going to the polls after BJP MLA Anand Bhushan Pandey’s death, the party has fielded his widow Rinki Rani Pandey to take on Congress candidate Shambhu Patel, who is also supported by ally RJD.
Sympathy votes are likely to be a powerful factor on these seats, observers feel.