Severe quake likely in Uttarakhand: expert

“Temblor might occur tomorrow, or 50 years later, but it will hit the State”

With warnings that a severe earthquake can strike Uttarakhand anytime, the State will have to be prepared rather than be caught unawares as during the floods in 2013 that caused heavy casualties and damage on the road to Kedarnath and Rudraprayag.— File Photo: Prashant Nakwe

In the wake of the recent Nepal earthquake, the possibility of Uttarakhand witnessing a major earthquake of magnitude 8 or more has again come to the fore.

A research article titled “Geomorphology reveals active décollement geometry in the central Himalayan seismic gap” reveals that a 700-kilometre-long “central seismic gap” in the Himalayan front had not ruptured in a major earthquake in 200-500 years. The western half of the “central seismic gap” spans Uttarakhand, the article states.

Vinod Kumar Gaur, Geophysicist and Honorary Professor with the Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation (Council of Scientific and Industrial Research) in Bangalore, told

The Hindu : “A major earthquake is bound to occur [in Uttarakhand]. It might occur tomorrow, or 50 years later, but it will hit the State.”

“According to our calculations, the ongoing plate tectonic process has already stored sufficient elastic strain energy in several segments of the Himalayas west of Nepal, including Uttarakhand, which could generate equal or higher magnitude earthquakes in the future. Our current understanding allows us to estimate the accumulated strain energy but not the time of its release which is controlled by the variable bearing strengths of rocks in different regions,” Professor Gaur wrote in an email response to queries by

The Hindu .

Seismic hazards have been sidelined in the construction of structures including hydroelectric projects and roads across the State.

S.P. Sati, Research Officer, Disaster management in the Department of Geology of HNB Garhwal University, Srinagar, told

The Hindu : “Many dams are Roller Compacted Concrete that do have enough elasticity to contain a major earthquake. Though it can be argued that these structures, if taken individually, might not result in major devastation, but, the way they are built one after the other on the rivers there is bound to be a cumulative effect of these structures which can result in major devastation in the event of a major earthquake.”

Professor Gaur, who has been associated with the 206.5-metre-high Tehri dam project, has, in his recently published research work titled “Geoethics: Tenets and Praxis. Two Examples from India” stated that while the dam site might experience an earthquake measuring up to 8.5 on the Richter scale, a “full 3-D simulation of dam performance in response to an earthquake of magnitude 8.5 earthquake beneath the dam” has not been performed.

“Temblor might occur tomorrow, or 50 years later, but it will hit the State”