he Left Front-Congress jot , forged in the run-up to the Assembly polls in West Bengal, has been termed a seat-sharing arrangement and not technically an alliance. The Left Front’s largest party, the Communist Party of India (Marxist), in particular, has always been coy about “alliances”. Alliances — even electoral ones — for the party have always been predicated upon a programmatic understanding with the partner(s).
The CPI(M) has for long relied upon a front/alliance strategy based on the nature of the programmatic understanding. If it is with outright leftist parties, as the case in West Bengal since the early 1970s, the front is termed the “Left Front”; if the alliance involves other parties that are willing to adhere to a minimum programme that is by and large leftist, it has taken the “Left Democratic Front” route; and if the alliance simply has a common minimum programme with ideologically disparate forces as part of it, it has formed the “United Front”. A non-programmatic electoral alliance is more common for the CPI(M) in States where it has been traditionally weak, such as in Tamil Nadu where seat-sharing has been forged with parties based on a political understanding or nominal slogans.
The CPI(M)’s (and the Left Front’s) extension of a seat-sharing arrangement with the Congress is, therefore, unique in its recent history, considering that the State has been its pocket-borough till not long ago.
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The seat-sharing has come about despite clear and unambiguous rejection of any alliance with the Congress as part of its political resolutions envisaged in its most recent party congress in 2015.
The reason for this “alliance” is not too difficult to fathom. Since 2009, the Left Front and the CPI(M) have been consistently losing elections and dropping vote shares across various levels of elections. Multiple local body polls (both urban and rural), two Lok Sabha elections in 2009 and 2014 and an Assembly election in 2011 saw diminishing (even cascading) returns for the Left as the Trinamool had usurped its predominance in the State. The question is will the alliance be strong enough to supplant the Trinamool?
The results from the 2014 elections can hint at an answer to the question. The Lok Sabha polls saw the Trinamool, the Congress, the Left Front and the BJP all contesting separately and offered a good test case to assess their individual strengths.
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BJP’s share The caveat is that this was a Lok Sabha poll, which saw the projection of Narendra Modi’s candidacy, adding a boost to the BJP’s electoral prospects, a benefit that will not necessarily persist for the party in the Assembly polls.
That said, despite this caveat, an Assembly seat-wise break-up of the Lok Sabha election results reveals that the Trinamool won 214 of the 294 segments, the Left Front won 28, the Congress 28 and the BJP 24. The Congress won 28 segments, the same as the Left, despite only a 9.6 per cent vote share (The CPI(M) had a 21.8 per cent vote share, the Trinamool 39.4 per cent and the BJP 16.9 per cent).
The discrepancy can be explained by the fact that the Congress won in more concentrated areas where it has enjoyed traditional support in Malda and in Berhampore (in Murshidabad) in particular, where it won a large chunk of the Assembly segments. The Left Front had its support base spread across the State and a higher vote share did not necessarily increase its Assembly segment wins.
If the Left and the Congress had contested the elections together, they would have won 98 segments together, with the Trinamool winning 178 and the BJP 18. That is a good jump of 42 segments. If the 2016 candidates from the parties had contested in 2014, the Congress would have gained around two seats and the Left Front would win 40 more because of the accretion of the respective vote shares.
It is evident that the alliance expects a dip in the BJP’s vote share from the 2014 Lok Sabha polls and those votes not going to the Trinamool.
If so, the gains could be higher and this is the reason the Left Front and the Congress have formed this electoral front, even if both of them are unnatural allies in the State.
The bonhomie exuded by the leadership of both parties with former Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee taking part in joint rallies with Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi is now understandable, if mere electoral arithmetic is used as a parameter to judge the alliance.
Corrections & Clarifications:
The article previously mentioned Sitaram Yechury attending joint election rallies. Mr. Yechury was not present at the meetings. The article has been edited post publication.