The byelections held to 10 Assembly constituencies in Bihar on Thursday, the results of which are due on August 25, will decide the future of politics in the State and set the stage for the Assembly election next year.
If the combination formed by Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal, Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and the Congress is able to win at least five or six seats, the alliance will remain in place, senior Congress sources said.
If it fails, the combine will fall apart and the Congress will, in the coming months, try to ally itself with the JD(U). Though many in the Congress feel this could be an opportunity for the party to start from the scratch, a young leader from the State said: “We are plumbing the depths right now: we can’t do any worse.”
For the comrades-turned-foes-turned-allies, Mr. Yadav and Mr. Kumar, the byelections will demonstrate if they can stage a comeback together. They, too, will have to re-assess the situation after the elections, depending on the results — on whether to stick together and dump the Congress or part ways. The results will provide them the opportunity to see whether their respective constituencies — Yadavs and Rajputs for the RJD, the EBCs and the Mahadalits for the JD(U) — have gelled together.
One constituency that all the three parties share is, of course, the minorities, a group that has brought them together.
In the recent general elections, the BJP-headed combine swept the State, winning 31 of the 40 seats. Six of the 10 Assembly seats that went to the polls on Thursday were won by the BJP in the 2010 Assembly elections. These byelections, the first major political poll after the general elections, will also demonstrate whether the popularity of BJP is diminishing.