Will Modi wave continue for Maharashtra polls?

The odds are certainly stacked against ruling Congress-NCP

Maharashtra Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan.

The Modi wave in the Lok Sabha polls had reduced the Congress party to the worst performance in its history in the crucial state of Maharashtra. As the State heads for the Assembly polls, the question is whether there will be a sequel to the saffron surge in this 288-seat state.

The Lok Sabha polls had seen the Congress reduced to just two seats and its ally the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) managing only four. By contrast the Shiv Sena-BJP and their allies won 42 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats.

The odds are certainly stacked against the Congress-NCP. Besides the Modi factor, the alliance is shackled by major anti-incumbency after 15 consecutive years in power. Besides, the Congress-NCP alliance faces grave corruption charges which the Opposition has made a campaign issue accusing the parties of “scams worth Rs. 11.88 lakh crore.” The Adarsh scam had cost former Chief Minister Ashok Chavan his post while the multicrore irrigation scam tainted Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar and State NCP President Sunil Tatkare.

The Shiv Sena-BJP and four smaller parties which form the Mahayuti face the challenge of capitalising on these weaknesses. Besides, there are some concerns about the extent to which the Modi magic will continue. The recent by-polls in several States saw the Congress make unexpected gains. ‘How many of the Modi government’s promises have been fulfilled? The price rise has not been curtailed,” says Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan.

The BJP will have to overcome the absence of mass leader Gopinath Munde in the campaign. However, it has in its arsenal, Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a campaigner and Mr. Shah’s strategising which saw the BJP sweep Uttar Pradesh in the Lok Sabha polls.

Corruption, price rise

Besides corruption and price rise, the development plank will also remain an election issue. Mr. Modi and Mr. Chavan have made it a point to inaugurate a slew of key projects in the State. The Congress and NCP have raised the issue of the demand for statehood for Vidarbha to target the saffron parties for their divergent stands on the issue. The ongoing farm crisis exacerbated by the delayed monsoon could also impact the poll results.

Both fronts have had to deal with a battle for one-upmanship which has caused concerns about the smooth running of the alliances. The NCP and the BJP have demanded half the assembly seats from their allies.

This election is also a crucial test for Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). The party was a game-changer in the 2009 elections, cutting dramatically into saffron votes, but it drew a blank in the Lok Sabha elections. Since then Mr. Thackeray first announced he would contest the Lok Sabha polls but later said he was undecided. With the party showing no signs of a concrete plan yet, it faces a battle for its very survival this election.