The Hindu explains: Is Karnataka’s ruling coalition on shaky ground?

If a total of 13 more MLAs from the coalition comprising the Congress and the JD(S) resign, it would push the government into a minority.

Chief Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy with Deputy Chief Minister G Parameshwara.

Is the Karnataka government under threat?

The coalition government in Karnataka had a slender majority of 118 in the 224-member Assembly, where a simple majority requires 113 members. Two Congress MLAs resigned on Monday, bringing it’s strength down to 116.

How many more MLAs must resign to topple the government?

If a total of 13 more MLAs from the coalition comprising the Congress and the JD(S) resign, it would push the government into a minority in the State’s Lower House, paving way for an alternate government led by the BJP.

What appears to be the BJP’s strategy?

The BJP has 105 MLAs and its strategy is to get 15 MLAs from the ruling coalition to resign. This would reduce the strength of the House to 209, giving the party a simple majority in the Assembly. The legislators, who resign, are likely to join the BJP and fight the bypolls on a BJP ticket. This would reprise the Operation Kamala that the saffron party had engineered in the State in 2008 to circumvent the Anti Defection Law.

Does BJP have the requisite numbers?

Several party officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, have claimed that between 9-11 coalition MLAs were ready to resign. This number included the two members who have since resigned leaving the party still some way short of the magic number of 15. BJP strategists, however, expect Monday’s resignations would help create favourable momentum for other disgruntled coalition MLAs to resign and switch sides.

What is the coalition doing to keep its flock together?

The Congress is said to be mulling a cabinet reshuffle that would entail several senior Congress ministers resigning in order to accommodate the dissident MLAs in the government.