‘Siddaramaiah trying to generate a sense of regional identity is a clever move’

‘BJP, under Yeddyurappa’s leadership, is divided, and its members think he is autocratic’

Karnataka : Bengaluru : 22/07/2017 : (pic to go with Mr. Aditya's copy) James Manor one of the speaker addressing at the second day of DR. Ambedkar International Conference -2017 at GKVK Auditorium on 22 July 2017. Photo : V Sreenivasa Murthy.

James Manor, Emeritus Professor of Commonwealth Studies, University of London, has been studying Karnataka politics and elections for almost 50 years. He was in Bengaluru to participate in “The Babasaheb Dr. B.R. Ambedkar International Conference 2017”. He will be touring the State in the second half of August to gauge the mood of voters ahead of the Assembly elections next year. The Hindu caught up with him for a chat. Edited excerpts:

What, in your opinion, are the prospects of the Siddaramaiah-led government in the upcoming polls?

The Congress government is not troubled by any large visible corruption scandals, and inflation is low. But it is extremely difficult and rare for a government to get re-elected in the State, and the last to do so was in 1985. Voters of the State are very demanding, sophisticated, and even impatient. Some of the governments that were voted out were not particularly bad. So, the Congress has a decent chance, but one cannot say that it is likely to win.

How do you rate the chances of the Opposition?

The BJP, under the leadership of B.S. Yeddyurappa, is divided, and even its members think he is autocratic. He has not been a good political manager. The JD(S) is similarly plagued by differences between H.D. Kumaraswamy and H.D. Deve Gowda, the impact of which is yet to be seen. But the polls are either won or lost depending on who wins in the key central and northern parts of the State, where the BJP has a popular base. The Congress has no popular Lingayat leader, though it has some dynamic Vokkaliga leaders. But the JD(S) will try to get as many seats as possible in the Vokkaliga dominated Old Mysuru region. S.M. Krishna joining the BJP has had little impact as was evident in the recent Assembly bypolls.

The BJP has rekindled the communal question in the coastal region. Do you see the tone of elections changing?

The BJP was severely punished in the coastal region for extreme communal polarisation during its reign, in the 2013 elections. The party is ill-advised to stoke communal passions unless they can control it. They may be risking the same punishment.

The Chief Minister has suddenly become active in recent months

For a long time, Siddaramaiah was not as active as his people wanted him to be. But as polls are approaching and he has become active. The recent issue of Kannada flag is interesting. He is trying to generate a sense of regional identity, which is a clever move. While Karnataka is not a State known for a strong regional identity, it is possible to build it even where it is weak. The best example is Odisha. In the last 10 years, Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik has worked and built a strong regional identity in that State.

Mr. Siddaramaiah calls himself an AHINDA leader and has tried to mould himself in the legacy of Devaraj Urs. How do you see the AHINDA politics playing out? Will the various welfare schemes help him to get re-elected?

The idea of welfare schemes is not very new. So winning an election solely on that record may be difficult. But many programmes, like the SC/ST Sub-plan, have ensured schemes that have really touched the lives of disadvantaged communities and are not empty promises. Maybe they will respond. It is quite possible that Vokkaliga and Lingayat communities may be feeling a bit left out. But its impact is to be seen.