The byelections to Belagavi Lok Sabha constituency and Basavakalyan and Maski Assembly constituencies on Saturday come at a time when the BJP government is grappling with challenges on many fronts — management of COVID-19, strike by road transport corporation employees, and the alleged CD sex scandal involving party MLA Ramesh Jarkiholi.
Pulling off victories in at least two constituencies would likely help beleaguered Chief Minister B.S. Yediyurappa consolidate his position within the party and the government. Defeat in these constituencies, which have a strong presence of the Lingayat community, to which Mr. Yediyurappa belongs, would further strengthen those leading the chorus for a change in leadership.
With the Assembly elections two years away, the stakes are equally high for the Congress. Victory in the two Assembly seats would enable the party step up its attack on the government for its alleged failures on many fronts and would also boost the morale of the cadre under the leadership of D.K. Shivakumar.
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It is a matter of prestige for the BJP to retain the Belagavi constituency, the epicentre of politics of the Jarkiholi brothers. Mr. Ramesh Jarkiholi, who played a pivotal role in the formation of the BJP government in the State, has stayed away from the campaigning, following his alleged role in CD scandal. His brother and Congress MLA Satish Jarkiholi is locked in a straight fight with the BJP’s Mangala, wife of the late Suresh Angadi, Union Minister who succumbed to COVID-19.
The BJP is banking on the support of Lingayats and Marathas, for whose welfare the government has set up corporations and made budgetary allocations. The Congress is aiming to garner support from members of Scheduled Caste, Scheduled Tribe, OBC communities, apart from minorities.
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The bypoll in the reserved Maski constituency is seen as a referendum on former MLA Pratapgouda Patil switching parties. The BJP has fielded the disqualified MLA, who had won in 2018 on Congress ticket but defected to the BJP in 2019. The Congress nominee, Basanagouda Turvihal, had contested on BJP ticket in 2018 and lost by a margin of just over 200 votes. The Chief Minister’s son B.Y. Vijayendra has strategised the BJP’s campaign in Maski, apparently with huge resources. His influence in the party and the government would grow further if the party wins in Maski.
It is a multi-cornered contest in Basavakalyan, with Congress candidate Mala B. Narayana Rao, wife of former MLA the late Narayana Rao, having the sympathy factor on her side. The BJP votes are likely to be split between rebel candidate Mallikarjun Khuba and official nominee Sharanu Salgar. The minority votes are likely to be divided between the Congress and the JD(S) candidate Syed Yasrab Ali Quadri. Congress leaders, particularly former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, have stayed in this constituency for long and campaigned intensively.