The Janata Dal (Secular), which won two Parliamentary Constituencies in the 2014 general elections and one more in the recent bypolls, seems to be bringing more chips to the negotiating table than it can afford to.
Apart from Hassan and Mandya, which it currently holds, the party hopes to negotiate with the Congress for 10 more seats.
The confidence seems to stem from the party’s performance in the recent Assembly polls, rather than the previous Lok Sabha polls, where, traditionally, JD(S) tends to lose about half their voters.
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For instance, in the 2013 Assembly elections, the JD(S) had nearly 20% vote share. By the 2014 Parliamentary polls, its vote share dipped to just 10.5%, almost all of which is concentrated in south Karnataka.
Consequently, the JD(S) managed to come runner-up in only one constituency, while remaining a distant third or lower in the rest.
There is strong indication that in these constituencies, the JD(S)’s “lost” votes got transferred to the BJP, rather than the Congress.
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Based on performance in the recent elections (see graphic), voter data shows the JD(S) had garnered more votes than the Congress in two constituencies (Kolar and Tumakuru, both with sitting Congress MPs), while coming close in Mysuru (incumbent BJP MP) and Chickballapur (Congress MP). In the rest, the JD(S) becomes only a marginal player.
“Quoting such a high number is only a bargaining chip. I don’t see the JD(S) getting even nine seats (one-third). But, even if they settle for five or six, the pre-poll alliance will change the electoral arthimetic on the ground that will be an immense benefit,” said Sandeep Shastri, Political Scientist and National Coordinator of Lokniti Network.
Transfer of votes
Even if the alliance partners chalk out a seat-sharing agreement, it may not be smooth sailing for them, as the recent bypolls have shown.
In Mandya Lok Sabha and Ramanagaram Assembly bypolls — won by the JD(S) — electoral data shows that transfer of votes from Congress workers to their alliance partner was far from comprehensive.
In the region, which has been a traditional fight between the Congress and the JD(S), some Congress workers may have indeed voted for BJP whose candidate saw a gain of over 1.5 lakh votes when compared to the 2014 elections.
However, Dr. Shastri thinks that things will change for the upcoming elections. “For their mutual survival, they need BJP out. And they would have to send this message out to the cadre. Political chemistry is important and it will have an impact on the ground,” he said.