The massive defeat of the Congress in the Hebbal Assembly constituency, by a margin of over 19,000 votes, could now trigger a blame game between veteran Congress leaders, who had backed the candidature of C.K. Abdul Rahman Sharief (grandson of the former Railway Minister C.K. Jaffer Sharief), and Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, who had wanted Byrati Suresh, MLC, to contest for the seat.
In fact, a section in the party feels that the results are a reiteration that Mr. Siddaramaiah cannot be sidestepped and without his support the party old leadership could not pull off a victory.
In this backdrop, the Chief Minister’s comments that “We were confidante of winning in Hebbal. The loss was unexpected” (he spoke to reporters in Mysuru after the results were announced) were construed as a jibe at those who backed Mr. Sharief, including Congress leader in the Lok Sabha M. Mallikarjun Kharge, and senior leaders Oscar Fernandes and B.K. Hariprasad.
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Adding insult to injury for Mr. Sharief is that his margin of defeat to BJP’s Y.A. Narayanaswamy is nearly four times more than the margin of defeat he suffered at the hands of the late Jagadish Kumar (BJP) in 2013. In 2013, he lost by 5,136 votes, this time around it is 19,199 votes.
The selection of Mr. Sharief had become a “prestige” issue, pitting old Congressmen against Mr. Siddaramaiah. Energy Minister D.K. Shivakumar was in charge of the campaign in Hebbal and the defeat is seen as a “loss of face” for him.
In fact, party leaders have pointed out that votes of the dominant Vokkaliga community in the constituency, to which Mr. Shivakumar belongs, have gone in favour of the BJP.
The minorities are a sizeable number in the constituency. However, within the minority leaders in the Congress, State Youth Congress chief Rizwan Arshad was against Mr. Sharief’s candidature. He had publicly blamed Mr. Jaffer Sharief for his defeat in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in the Bengaluru Central constituency.
Always a tough fightGiven these differences, it was always a tough fight for the Congress, even more so without the total backing of the Chief Minister and his loyalists.
The BJP consolidated the Hindu vote bank by launching a spirited campaign led by Union Law Minister D.V. Sadananda Gowda in Hebbal, which is part of his Lok Sabha constituency, and a host of other leaders.
Congress insiders feel that the byelection results may have left veteran leaders waiting for a chance to strike back, though the Chief Minister seems to have asserted himself clearly. Now, the results of the elections to the zilla and taluk panchayats will be the bigger test for Mr. Siddaramaiah.
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BJP: Picking up steam
2013 Assembly election: 38,162
2015 BBMP council election: 41,287
2016 Assembly byelection : 60,367
Congress: Losing its grip
2013 Assembly election: 33,026
2015 BBMP Council election: 42,329
2016 Assembly byelection: 41,218
JD(S): A steep drop
2013 Assembly election: 25,073
2015 BBMP council elections: 24,708
2016 Assembly byelection: 3,666