Hopes rise for monsoon revival

After weakening of cyclonic storm over Arabian Sea

There could be some good development on the monsoon front soon. According to the India Meteorological Department, monsoon activity in the peninsular region, which had remained subdued for the past several days, could revive in the next two days.

IMD Director General Ajit Tyagi told journalists that there were ample indications that the monsoon flow could strengthen over the region and start advancing northwards from June 6.

The system could advance over coastal and south interior Karnataka and South Konkan and Goa region including Mumbai by June 10 or 11 and subsequently over more parts of Maharashtra and many parts of Andhra Pradesh and some parts of Gujarat, Orissa and adjoining East India during the week from June 11 to 17.

The positive turn of events is expected in the wake of the weakening of the cyclonic storm over the northern parts of the Arabian Sea and indications that the positive phase of the phenomenon called Madden-Julian Oscillation could increasingly become strong over the Indian Ocean during the next two weeks.

He refuted apprehensions that the cyclonic storm would have taken away the monsoon flow from India as it happened last year when cyclone Aila soon after the onset of the monsoon had led to a break of about one week in monsoon activity.

Noting that no two meteorological situations need be similar, he said that weather prediction models are clearly showing that a fresh strong surge of monsoon activity was well on its way. “There is no need for any worry,'' he stressed.

“The cyclonic storm had, no doubt, disrupted the monsoon flow in the peninsular region over the past several days. That is past. It can't have any adverse influence any more. On the contrary, the system could only have a beneficial impact for the country hereafter.''

Forecast models, he said, are indicating that parts of north and north-western region, including Delhi, could experience some good rainfall activity during June 6 to 8, as the system, which is increasingly weakening, re-curves north-eastwards and moves towards the Pakistan coast.