It took 169 days for India to cross the first 1 million COVID-19 cases mark compared to Brazil (115 days) and the U.S. (98 days). But the jump from 2 million cases to 3 million occurred in just 16 days - much quicker than Brazil (23 days) and the U.S. (28). This means cases are increasing quickly though the virus remains limited to a few States. Within those States, however, cases are spreading across districts.
Spread among States
The table depicts the State-wise % share of India's new cases recorded in three periods: between 0 and 1 million cases (P1), between 1 million and 2 million cases (P2) and between 2 million and 3 million cases (P3). For instance, Maharashtra recorded 28% of India's new cases during P1 and 19% each in P2 and P3.
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The locus of spread has not changed much in the last two periods. Four States, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, accounted for more than 50% of the new cases in both the periods. In P1, Delhi accounted for 12% of the cases, but in P2 and P3 it accounted for only 2% of each.
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Spread among districts
The table depicts the share of districts with >1%, >3%, >5% and >10% of a State's new cases in P1, P2 and P3. For instance, the share of Maharashtra's districts with >1% of the State's cases increased from 26% in P1 to 46% in P2 to 54% in P3. The share of Maharashtra's districts with >10% the State's cases decreased from 9% in P1 to 6% in P3.
In Gujarat, the share of districts with >1% of the State's cases increased from 27% in P1 to 64% in P3; in West Bengal from 65% to 87%; in Karnataka, from 67% to 87%. In Gujarat, the share of districts with >3% of the State's cases increased from 9% in P1 to 21% in P3; in Tamil Nadu from 11% to 24%.
So, while the disease has largely remained confined to a few States, cases are spreading beyond the urban districts to the rural areas.