Of all god-like figures in tennis, Serena Williams is arguably the most human. Right through her career, the 23-time Major winner has provided enough evidence that she isn’t immune to pressure, time and the mental weariness that accompanies constant winning. Setbacks and successes have always co-existed.
Flushing Meadows in New York has seen it all. It was here in 1999, that as a 17-year-old, she defeated Kim Clijsters, Conchita Martinez, Mary Pierce, Lindsay Davenport and Martina Hingis en route to her first Major. Much later, between 2012 and 2015, she went on a 26-match winning streak — her best across Slams — and came agonisingly close to completing a calendar Grand Slam.
Equally, it is a place that she has exited amidst a meltdown more than once. In the 2009 semifinal against Clijsters, she threatened a lineswoman, leading to a point penalty that ushered in the defeat. A blow-out loss to Samantha Stosur in the 2011 final stumped admirers. In last year’s reverse to Naomi Osaka, she clashed with chair umpire Carlos Ramos and was docked a game for repeated code violations.
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When the US Open starts on Monday, which version of Serena will present itself? It will be exactly two decades since her maiden triumph here and will be a story like none other if she can capture a 24th slam at the same site, and tie Margaret Court for the all-time record. But with the happenings from 2018 still deep-rooted in memory, and persistent fitness concerns — she retired with back spasms from the Rogers Cup final in Toronto last week and then pulled out of Cincinnati — can she summon her best?
Diminishing dominance
Serena’s form since her return from maternity break has been both encouraging and dispiriting. To have reached three out of the last five Slam finals is enough indication of her staying power. But to have lost all three, without as much as winning a set, has cast doubts on her famed big-match nerve. From 1999 to 2015, the American had lost just four of the 25 finals she had featured in. Of the last seven, she has been defeated in five.
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In fact, from 2012 Wimbledon to 2017 Australian Open, Serena won 10 of the 19 Majors she entered, with her Dominance Ratio (DR) — a measure of all-round quality, calculated by dividing the % of return points won by the % of service points lost — a whopping 1.43. Since her comeback at the 2018 French Open, it has dropped to 1.26. To put this in perspective, Serena’s career win-loss record (808-141 at 85%) has come at a DR of 1.33.
“You know in my 20s, I was always expected to win, but it's a different circumstance for me [now],” Serena said after losing to Simona Halep this Wimbledon. “Seems like every Grand Slam final I’m in recently has been an unbelievable effort to get there. It would be interesting to see how it would be under different circumstances. I can't say that I have a lot of tension or [am] super tense. The only thing I can say [is] my opponents [have] played unbelievable.”
Pattern to losses
However, there is a discernible pattern that runs across these losses. Armed with one of the best serves in the history of the game, Serena has always had the first-mover advantage. Coupled with her power, she has mastered the game’s faster surfaces. But just a month shy of turning 38, with her movement a tad restricted, she appears to have lost that ability to patiently work a rally, defend and grind when required.
Opponents, wherever possible, have lengthened points, passed up put-away opportunities for safer shots to draw her into rallies and have even been willing to give up an occasional point if it helps deplete Serena’s physical resources. Angelique Kerber and Halep executed this to perfection in their Wimbledon victories in 2018 and 2019 respectively. Even the big-hitting Czech Karolina Pliskova resorted to such tactics to overcome Serena in the 2019 Australian Open quarterfinal.
Defeat as motivation
Often in the past, Serena has used the pain of defeat as motivation. Rivals are most wary when she is hurting from a loss. But according to former World No.1 and seven-time Major champion Mats Wilander, it is a trait that is diminishing. “Her intimidation factor is slowly disappearing, compared to the youngest ones,” the Swede told Eurosport.
“She has not been consistent in the last few years on Tour and has not played enough tournaments and won enough victories. The dressing room probably thinks that there is a small chance that they can win because the consistency — both physical and in tennis — has not been there. The intimidation factor is not as strong with Serena, as it is with someone like Roger [Federer] or Rafa [Nadal].”
Serena is at a stage in her career where prioritising the sport’s biggest prizes is considered the norm. She herself has played an average of just three events outside the Majors in the last four years. Following Wimbledon, though, she felt more match-play was the way out.
“I just have to figure out a way to win a final,” she said. “Maybe playing other finals outside of Slams would be really helpful just to kind of get in the groove so by the time I get to a Slam final I’m kind of used to what to do.”
So near yet so far
The Rogers Cup in Toronto could have done wonders in this regard if not for the setback in the summit clash against Canadian teen sensation Bianca Andreescu. Two rounds earlier, she had even earned a morale-boosting straight-sets victory over World No.1 Osaka.
“The frustrating part is that I have had this before and for 24 to 36 hours I am under this spasm,” she explained. “I know I can play but I just can't play on that day. They go away after 24 to 36 hours. It’s like clockwork. I do different treatments, take a day off. If it's what that typically happens, then I will be fine. We will wait and see.”
Regardless, to discount Serena’s chances at the US Open is to do so at one’s own peril. She hasn’t secured a title of any kind since Melbourne 2017, even while slam No.24 and Court’s record seemed just a hair’s breadth away. Yet, steely willed as she is, there is no dearth of self-belief to reorganise her technique, calm her mind, and deliver the best at the crunch.
“I feel like I'm still incredibly competitive or else I wouldn’t really be out here,” Serena said. “Someone told me I shouldn’t look at the records any more. I should just focus on my game. That's kind of what I’ve been doing since I got to 18 [Slams]. It’s really not about 24 or 23 or 25. No matter what I do, I will always have a great career. I’m just really on this journey of doing the best that I can, playing the best that I can when I can.”