Please don't even ask me about England.
Surely it cannot win the World Cup except by a fluke and a miracle. It did not lose 6-1 to Australia and accumulate a set of damaging injuries except for a reason.
It is not good enough to do more than compete and lose against the top teams and if it reaches the semifinals it will have achieved more than its dedicated Barmy Army has a right to anticipate.
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Don't worry.
It will not be walked over but, unless four nights at home has restored its shattered belief, its journey to the sub-continent will be wasted.
How's that for planning by the way.
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It demonstrates just one fact. England and its rulers have never taken one-day cricket seriously enough.
What a pity!
It is a pity for Andrew Strauss, an improving captain who has always had the goodwill of the team behind him and Paul Collingwood who has elected to continue in one-day cricket, but who is now also unlikely to add the world one-day trophy to go with his World T20 triumph.
By contrast, with well-rested India — last match in South Africa was on January 23 — England was still playing hard in the Perth heat on February 6. That left little time at home — not enough to open its post possibly — before it flew off to India the following Saturday. What chance has it got? Collingwood even declined a spell of paternity leave in a bid to keep a strong grip on his place.
Indians consistent
Instead it has to be India, whose players are consistent, comfortable in their homeland as well as in their own skins and led forward by the ageless immaculate Sachin Tendulkar.
Tendulkar is supposed to live for ever but his retirement must come soon and think how less a place this earth would be if he had never been part of a World Cup-winning side.
He has shown us how it is possible to be a great, elegant, all-conquering heroic batsman within the constraints of the 50-over formula.
No one would deny him the glory that goes with a triumphant finale on home soil.
Thunderous Sehwag
Besides India has the thunderous Virender Sehwag, the baffling Harbhajan Singh, the clever Zaheer Khan and, best of all, Mahendra Singh Dhoni, an astute captain, a danger wherever he bats and one of the best wicketkeepers in the tournament. The rest are not slouches either and the core of the team is so strong that, even viewed from afar, it is a champion.
Other teams promise a shot at the final at least. Sri Lanka, of course, was everyone's patsy until it learnt to field and to be surprisingly nasty to its opponents.
Then there is Bangladesh, everyone's favourite outsider which, if it was to unearth one more winner, will shock teams which are theoretically stronger.
South Africa is strong and relentless and particularly keen to wipe out memories of that lopsided defeat in Sydney in 1992 when, under the rules then in place, it needed 22 to win off the last ball.
Sensible rule
It still hates reference to that result which was clearly unfair; but at least it underlined the need for the present, more sensible, rule.
Finally there is Australia, a shadow of the side which once ruled the world in all forms of cricket, but still ready to bite the indolent.
You may earn a penny or two if you bet on its potential.
But, I am sorry to say, betting may be foolish during the World Cup 2011.