Even as the campaign for by-elections to 33 Assembly constituencies across nine States and three Parliamentary constituencies in three States ended on Thursday, no State appeared more crucial than Uttar Pradesh for the BJP and those who are observing its fortunes, particularly its opponents.
For one, as a U.P. State leader put it, the tallest BJP leader in U.P. now is none other than Prime Minister Narendra Modi who has retained the Varanasi Lok Sabha seat in the State and vacated the Vadodara seat in Gujarat, which will also see by-polls on September 13. BJP president and Modi loyalist Amit Shah, who has been credited with the party’s impressive performance in the U.P. Lok Sabha elections, has left no stone unturned to retain the dominance in by-polls too. “No by-elections have been as centrally controlled and managed as this one,” a BJP leader observed.
In U.P., 11 Assembly constituencies and the Mainpuri Lok Sabha constituency go to the polls. Gujarat has nine Assembly seats besides the Vadodara LS seat polling on the 13th and Rajasthan has four. West Bengal, Assam, Tripura, Chhattisgarh, Sikkim, Tripura and Andhra Pradesh also have by-polls. But results in none of these States, other than U.P., are likely to affect Mr. Modi’s standing.
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Mr. Modi has upstaged Home Minister Rajnath Singh in U.P. that had been his citadel for years, the last hit delivered by denying a ticket to his son Pankaj Singh for the by-elections. Holding U.P. in his tight grip will be an essential strategy for Mr. Modi ahead of the State elections in 2017. Mr. Singh is also reportedly keen to return to State politics. The evolving situation in U.P. will have the biggest impact on the power struggles in BJP nationally.
The second factor that makes this by-election a total U.P. show is the high stakes for the Mulayam Singh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party. A poor show as in May will further damage the reputation of the State government led by his son and Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav. Mulayam Singh has fielded his grandnephew from the Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat in the family stronghold.
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The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has not fielded candidates in the by-elections, after having been wiped out in the State that has been the original terrain where its Dalit politics took roots. The by-election campaign signalled a continuing gravitation of Dalits towards the BJP as during the Lok Sabha elections, and if the results on Sept. 16 bear that trend out, BSP leader Mayawati will have to worry about her political future. She had turned down a suggestion from Mr. Yadav to have a coalition to challenge the BJP.
The by-elections will therefore indicate not only what is in store for the BJP, but also for its opponents.