Parties bank on poll arithmetic

AIADMK sees change in popular mood; Congress holds an edge in Nanguneri

The byelections in Vikravandi and Nanguneri Assembly constituency have again thrown open the debate on the efficacy of electoral arithmetic factor.

The basis for the discussion is the performance of the State’s principal parties — the DMK and the AIADMK — and that of some of their allies such as the Congress and the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK).

Three years ago, at the time of Assembly elections, in Vikravandi, the AIADMK (56,845 votes) and the PMK (41,428 votes) finished second and third respectively behind the DMK (63,757 votes). In the last Lok Sabha elections, the AIADMK and the PMK came together and the perception in certain quarters was that their combined strength should ensure their nominee sailing through the Villupuram seat, under which Vikravandi falls.

To their surprise, not only the DMK romped home in the overall but also it polled 8,600 votes more than its nearest rival in the Vikravandi segment.

Similarly, in Nanguneri, the combination of the DMK and the Congress is considered a formidable feature. Even in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections when the national party was at the peak of unpopularity, its nominee had, on his own, secured 13,339 votes.

Two years later, when the two parties had an alliance during the Assembly polls, the Congress bagged the seat.

Now, in the Lok Sabha elections too, the arithmetic factor paid off as the DMK had netted about 35,000 votes in Nanguneri Assembly segment, which was higher than what the AIADMK got.

Revenue and IT Minister R.B. Udhayakumar, who represents Thirumangalam in Madurai district in the Assembly, however, says his party’s optimism for victory in Nanguneri depends on a few factors.

Apart from what he perceives the “favourable change” in the mood of people in recent weeks and the presence of a “well-oiled machinery” at the local level, Nanguneri voters backed the AIADMK as they wanted to have a representative who “can get things done” and not the person who “would only talk and complain.” The same holds good for Vikravandi too, he said.

Congress has an edge

But, former Tirunelveli MP S.S. Ramasubbu of the Congress cites the arithmetic factor and says that as of now, his party enjoyed an edge over the AIADMK. He points out that religious minorities — Christians and Muslims — account for about 15% of the electorate and contended they would be one of the deciding factors. Besides, Nanguneri has a considerable number of Mukkolathor, whose votes will also be crucial for the winner.

R.S. Bharathi, DMK’s organising secretary, and D. Ravikumar, Villupuram MP and Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK)’s general secretary, say that the DMK’s “broad-based support” among voters of Vikravandi is the “biggest strength.” However, P. Ramajayam, academician, feels the contest is going to be close with the ruling party leaving no chances for capturing the seat.