As many as 61,225 new jobs were created in Tamil Nadu’s formal sector in June 2020, which has been the best month in the first quarter of 2020-21 (April-June period). However, the numbers for May have been revised now to a negative 9,675, from the previously-disclosed positive figure of 17,207 jobs, which had raised eyebrows among experts.
Job creation is measured in the number of new net enrolments made with the Employees Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO).
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The numbers for April 2020 have been revised to negative -25137 from negative -14098, mentioned in the July data release.
“The EPFO data indicates that the economy is improving but at a slow pace from what it was in April, thereby triggering improvement in hiring. However, June numbers would still be low in comparison to pre-COVID-19 levels,” Ms. Rituparna Chakraborty, co-founder, TeamLease Services, a staffing firm, said. She also pointed out that it is very hard to infer why there is a huge revision in May numbers. “The easiest conclusion could be that there is an error in computation. However, that is mere speculation.”
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“The August 20 report clearly points to the increased job market growth in June, as compared with April and May. However, there is a huge revision of data for April and May between the report furnished in July and now,” K.E. Raghunathan, convener of the Consortium of Indian Associations said. He pointed out that an upward revision is understandable, as a few establishments would have filed their PF returns late due to COVID-19, but a downward and that too negative revision calls for more understanding of the methodology, he said.
A footnote by EPFO said the data is provisional as updation of employees records is a continuous process and gets updated in subsequent months and estimates may include temporary employees whose contributions may not be continuous for the entire year.
Aditya Narayan Mishra, CEO of CIEL HR Services, a staffing firm, pointed out that the revision only indicates the volatile nature of the operating environment and the job market. “Layoffs might have happened in May and are getting reflected now,” he said.
Saundarya Rajesh, founder-president of diversity and inclusion consulting firm, Avtar Group, said that there are three categories of jobs – self-employed, employees on payroll of organisations and those in consulting roles in organisations. The EPFO data captures only the trends with regards to employees on payroll, while self-employed and those on consulting roles don’t have to comply with statutory requirements like provident fund and gratuity, she pointed out.
Ms. Rajesh said the job category of those on payroll and consulting roles saw a combined dip of 35% in the March-June period, but things have recovered in July and the drop has come down to 18%. She noted that the IT/ITES industry, banking and financial services industry as well as manufacturing industries saw a setback in April and May, but have recovered in June and July, but the hospitality industry including hotels, restaurants and catering have taken a big hit and are yet to recover.