AIADMK surplus votes will decide Kanimozhi’s fate

The Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), which has three MLAs in the Assembly, on Friday decided to boycott the Rajya Sabha polls.

As the Congress, which has five legislators, has not indicated its stand, the DMK made efforts to get the votes of the PMK. If the PMK had backed her candidature, Ms. Kanimozhi’s tally would have increased to 30.

On Friday, the PMK’s executive committee meeting decided to abstain from the elections, reiterating the party’s earlier stand that it would seek to form an alternative front to the Dravidian parties in the State. “A decision to this effect was taken at the general council meeting in 2011. The executive committee also agreed to abide by the decision,” a resolution from the PMK said.

With the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) deciding to boycott the election, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK)-led front will have four votes to spare.

Going by the revised calculations of poll authorities, a winning candidate should secure 3,301 points. As the front has a strength of 170 Members of Legislative Assembly (MLA) and given that each valid vote carries 100 points, the AIADMK front’s five candidates will be able to get 17,000 points, even though the requisite value is 16,505 (3,301 x 5).

This means that there will be an excess of 495 points with the AIADMK front, which includes the Communist Party of India, CPI (Marxist) and Forward Bloc. For the purpose of election, the figure of 495 points can be regarded as four votes only.

Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK)’s candidate A. R. Elangovan, who technically enjoys the support of 29 MLAs [or 2,900 points], can get through if the AIADMK front decides to transfer its surplus of four votes or 495 points to him. This will take his tally to 3,395 points.

The possibility of the AIADMK-led front extending support to the DMDK cannot be ruled out as the DMK is the principal rival of the ruling party.

DMK candidate Kanimozhi, who is now assured of the support of 27 MLAs [or 2,700 points], may not be able to retain her seat even if five Congress MLAs choose to support her.

She will be able to record only 3,200 points. However, there is a possibility of her victory if the AIADMK front does not transfer its surplus to the DMDK nominee by recording their second preference.

If there is a tie between two candidates in terms of points, the candidate getting higher first preference vote will prevail. In case of a tie again, the authorities will carry out a round-wise evaluation of votes. If the stalemate continues, the winner will be decided by a draw of lots.