Anti-incumbency did have an impact on results: Pollster

‘Large support base, fractured opposition ensured AIADMK’s victory’

: The anti-government sentiment in Tamil Nadu was not as strong as what was seen in the previous elections, but did play a role in DMK emerging as the strongest opposition in the State’s Legislative history, according to Arun Krishnamurthy, founder, Krish Info Media.

Among all the opinion and exit polls published and telecast during the course of the recently concluded Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu, only Krish Info Media and C-Voter got their numbers almost right.

Krish Info Media, a psephology and market research firm contracted by Tamil news channel Thanthi TV, had forecast the AIADMK coming back to power in the State. While the numbers predicted for the party fell short of the actual seats, the agency was bang on when it came to DMK’s tally -- it had predicted 99 seats for the DMK combine. The exit polls had predicted 111 seats for the AIADMK and 16 seats to be neck and neck.

“Our prediction was 96.2 per cent right for Tamil Nadu and 100 per cent for Puducherry,” Mr. Krishnamurthy told

The Hindu.

“These 16 seats that we forecast to be neck and neck turned out to be very close contests indeed. In fact, in our pre-poll survey, we saw 52 seats having close contests.

The victory margins in a large number of these constituencies were less than 5,000, and in many, the margin was less than 1, 000,” Mr. Krishnamurthy said.

Apart from lack of widespread anti-incumbency, “additional factors such as AIADMK enjoying a larger vote bank and regional spread, and division of opposition votes ensured that AIADMK won more seats,” he said. The agency carried out what the psephologist calls a “mood mapping exercise”. But he echoed what all other pollsters and television anchors had to say about the State’s voting patterns.

“Tamil Nadu has a complex mix of electorate. To be closer to the actual result, we had to employ a strict strategy which incorporated a representational sample covering varied demographic parameters such as gender, caste, religion and region,” he said.

The agency polled all 234 constituencies in both the pre-poll and post-poll surveys, but the sample population was different to ensure the results were right.

‘The agency had given 99 seats to the DMK combine and 111 for the AIADMK’