While popular scientific speculation about the devastating floods in Uttarakhand tend to attribute them to a torrential ‘cloudburst’, a senior climatologist with the Indian Institute of Science has contended that, curiously, the rainfall received in Kedarnath on June 16 and 17 “was not unusual” in these parts.
J. Srinivasan, chairman of the Divecha Center for Climate Change, says that his analysis of satellite data (there were no automatic rain gauges in this valley) indicates that the heaviest spell of rainfall, which lasted a few hours, did not exceed 20 mm/hr. Whereas, “a cloud burst is an intense rainfall event with rainfall intensity above 100 mm/hr,” Prof. Srinivasan says in the latest edition of journal Current Science .
The argument that rain alone caused this ‘tsunami’ of debris and mud, has got to be “simplistic at the very least,” he told
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There is an “insufficient interaction between operational agencies and academic/research institutions in tackling problems of immediate relevance to the country.” Prof. Srinivasan cautions, however, that Uttarakhand has seen several intense rainfall episodes in the past decade, most of them taking place during July and August. And while these caused landslips and deaths, they “did not receive as much media attention because they did not occur near any famous pilgrim centre.”