The declining trend in the number of new COVID-19 cases in Ernakulam is expected to continue despite a slight uptick in the test positivity rate (TPR), according to the official estimates.
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An analysis of the situation during the last four weeks showed that the number of cases between August 23 and 29 was 23,247 while it went up to 23,761 between August 30 and September 5. However, it slipped to 20,105 between September 6 and 12. The number of cases between September 13 and 19 declined to 16,712.
The data on COVID-19 tests revealed that around 1.4 lakh tests were held between August 23 and 29 while it went up to 1.5 lakh in the week between August 30 and September 5. The tests shot up to 1.6 lakh in the period between September 6 and 12. However, it dropped to around 94,945 between September 13 and 19.
Officials of the District Health wing clarified that the dip in tests came after the government recommended replacing rapid antigen tests with RT-PCR tests to the maximum extent possible.
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“The detection rate went up after we switched to RT-PCR tests instead of rapid antigen tests. There will be a dip in the number of tests from now onwards as rapid antigen tests are not done following the government directive. As RT-PCR tests have high sensitivity, the detected cases will be more and the TPR will also go up,” they said.
The analysis stated that the TPR will come down in the coming weeks. The test positivity rate calculated as a seven-day rolling average was 17.6% in the last week compared to the 15.5% recorded two weeks back. Despite the large number of new cases, hospitalisation rates and ICU admissions were showing a stationary phase. Despite the transient rise in new number of cases, the declining trend of new cases will continue, it said.
Around 14% of the district’s total population has been infected as on September 20. Among the 4.1 lakh cases reported in the last seven months, the number of breakthrough infections was 7, 987 amounting to 1.94% of the total cases in this period.