As the season enters its final phase, the forecast of a below-normal monsoon made by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has come true with the rainfall deficit standing exactly at the 12 per cent it has predicted. Private forecaster Skymet, which had forecast a normal monsoon, concedes that with the season nearly done, the rainfall is not likely to increase. “The country-wide cumulative rainfall [deficit] figure now stands at 12 per cent. The daily average rainfall figure will start taking a dip after a couple of days. Thus, we can expect that this [the average rainfall] figure will not rise much,” Skymet said on Wednesday.
The IMD says the southern peninsula and central India have been the worst hit, with rainfall 20 per cent and 15 per cent below normal, respectively. Northwest India, east and northeast India received 6 per cent less.
Only three — West Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh and Gangetic West Bengal — of the 36 sub-divisions in the country have received surplus rainfall, and 15 have received normal. Half the sub-divisions received deficient rainfall, the IMD says. The department defines rainfall as deficient if it is 20-59 per cent less than normal. But despite the deficient monsoon, food inflation has been falling.
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