Caution from IMD: lower rainfall in next 2 months

Consequently the seasonal forecast of 95 per cent may not be met

The India Meteorological Department's forecast of a seasonal rainfall of 95 per cent may not come true. The Department on Monday warned that rainfall over the next two months may not be as good as what has been achieved over the past two months.

In a press release at the end of the first half of the monsoon season, the Department said: “Rainfall for the country as a whole during the period August to September 2011 is likely to be [only] 90 per cent of the low pressure area [for the two-month period].”

(In the first two months, rainfall for the country has been 95 per cent.)

Vague on shortfall

Conceding that this could mean that the rainfall for the season as a whole could be lower than the forecast of 95 per cent, senior IMD officials, however, declined to comment as to what extent the shortfall would be, on the ground that forecast models were not giving a clear estimates for rains in September.

They, however, noted that the shortfall may not be more than five per cent, considering that the rainfall so far has been to the extent of 95 per cent. “The rainfall for the season as a whole is not likely to fall below 90 per cent.”