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A slow, distinct churn: BJP loses out in byelections

November 12, 2018 07:27 pm | Updated 07:38 pm IST

Congress supporters celebrate party candidate V.S. Ugrappa’s win in the Bellary Lok Sabha bypoll on November 6, 2018

The Bharatiya Janata Party's performance in the three parliamentary byelections in Karnataka, where it lost two seats in Bellary and Mandya and retained Shivamogga was in line with its insipid performances lately in bypolls held across the country.

The loss in Bellary was noteworthy - the Congress enhanced its vote share there by 18% points since 2014 while the BJP's vote share dipped 13.9% points. Significantly, the Congress' ally Janata Dal (Secular) is a minor bit player in Ballari and therefore this victory cannot be attributed to the coalition alone.

In the 22 Lok Sabha byelections held so far since 2014 and which have involved the BJP, the ruling party has lost 18 seats and won only four (See table).

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The party had held 13 of those seats in 2014, resulting in a net loss of nine seats. The BJP's seat tally in the Lok Sabha has now reduced to 273 from the 282 it held in 2014.

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In 2017 and 2018 alone, the party lost eight of those seats, with a cumulative vote share drop of 4.8% points. The Indian National Congress flipped five of those seats, enhancing its overall Lok Sabha tally to 49.

Despite the loss of these seats, the overall vote share of the BJP dipped only marginally from 30.97% in 2014 to 30.83%. This was because of the party's substantial gains in votes in some States such as West Bengal, despite not winning seats.

 

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