After untimely rainfall devastated farmers in several States across the country, there is more worrying news coming. The overall prediction for rainfall this year, during the southwest monsoon season, is 93 per cent, three percentage points below what is considered ‘normal’. Further the probability of receiving deficient rainfall is higher, at 33 per cent, over that of receiving ‘normal’ rainfall, at 28 per cent, Union Minister for Science & Technology and Earth Sciences Harsh Vardhan said here on Wednesday, while releasing the annual monsoon forecast report brought out by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Dr. Vardhan said that it was too early to predict a drought this point and the data on regional distribution of rainfall will be only available by June. But he said that he was already keeping the State governments and relevant government ministries, including the agriculture ministry, informed so that they could stay prepared for any eventuality.
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The report also notes that El-Nino conditions are likely to persist during the south-west monsoon. As the extreme sea surface temperature conditions over Pacific and Indian Oceans are known to have a strong influence on the Indian summer monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the sea surface conditions for adverse impact on the Indian monsoon. Officials from the Ministry of Earth Sciences further said that whenever they had predicted an El-Nino effect in the past, most of the time, the monsoon was troubled.
Strategy needed
A bad monsoon could affect almost two-thirds of our farmers as only 40 per cent of cultivated area in India is irrigated. “Both the economics and ecology of farming are unfavourable today,” agricultural expert M.S. Swaminathan told The Hindu. “All the responses we have in place right now to address this situation is very palliative,” he said, and urged the government to develop a deficient monsoon strategy well in advance with state-wise contingency plans.
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B.P. Yadav, head, weather forecasting at IMD told The Hindu that through partner organisations they were sending agromet advisories - via sms, radio broadcasts, newspaper articles - to nearly 80 lakh farmers across the country so that they could stay prepared to deal with the vagaries of the weather.
However, Mr. Swaminathan pointed out that information services were rather generic in nature as of now, and the need of the hour is accurate advice. “Telling the farmer you will have 35 per cent less rain is not as useful as telling them what its impact in their location, and for their crop will be. That kind of advice is lacking for now.”