There is good news from the weatherman to the farming community in the State.
Andhra Pradesh will receive abundant rain this monsoon. Rayalaseema, which is in the rain shadow region, is also likely to receive normal rainfall.
This year, central India is likely to receive 100% normal rains. Peninsular India is likely to receive 99% normal rains. North-west and north-east India are expected to receive 96% normal rainfall, according to India Meteorology Department (IMD) director-general K.J. Ramesh.
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Addressing a press conference here on Friday, Dr. Ramesh said monsoon rainfall would be fairly distributed across the country. Most of East and South India, including coastal Andhra Pradesh, were expected to receive excess rain during this period.
Last year, below normal rainfall was recorded in Rayalaseema, Cauvery Basin and Tamil Nadu. Also, 15% of land would receive less than normal rainfall usually.
This year, less than normal rainfall might not recur in Rayalaseema. It was also being predicted that low pressure would form in the Bay of Bengal. It would also result in good rains, he said. Dr. Ramesh ruled out the possibility of any strong El Nino developing during the latter half of the monsoon.
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“El Nino impacts monsoon. The reverse too happens. The emergence of El Nino does not either indicate a weak start or deficient rains, as this weather pattern is only one of the many variables influencing the south-west monsoon,” he explained.
Dynamic model
Dr. Ramesh said the IMD switched over to the dynamic global forecasting system from the existing statistical method.
“The dynamic model helps in getting a more accurate prediction of sea surface temperatures in the oceans. In the model, atmosphere and the ocean are coupled – a reason that helps in getting accurate picture,” he said.
Disaster Management Commissioner M.V. Seshagiri Babu, IMD director Y.K. Reddy, and Disaster Management Additional Commissioner Sivasankar were present.