A near normal rainfall during southwest monsoon from June to September predicted by the India Meteorological Department gives hope to farmers in Anantapur district.
Coinciding with the IMD’s predictions, US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a 65% chance of El Nino forming in the next couple of months and Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology in its ‘ENSO Outlook’ classifies it as ‘El Nino alert’. This means the chance of El Nino forming from Australian autumn is around 70%; triple the normal likelihood. The next update on El Nino was expected from all three major agencies on May 9.
Anantapur-based Senior Scientist (Agronomy) and Agrometeorologist in AICR Project on Agrometeorology S.N. Malleswari Sadhineni conducted study on El Nino years for the drought-prone district and rainfall pattern from 1991 to 2018.
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A strong El Nino year 2009 saw the district receiving 574.3 mm against a normal of 552.3 mm.
In 2014, a moderate El Nino year there was only 358.5 mm, but 2015 saw 644.4 mm rainfall in Anantapur. The 2014–16 El Nino phenomenon, according to the World Meteorological Organisation, is one of the three strongest since 1950.
While Ms. Malleswari says it is too early to predict beneficial rains in Rayalaseema region in the ensuing monsoon, rainfall during April is always an indication of normal activity in later months. There were no rains till April 16 this year, but from April 18 there was precipitation spread over some mandals of Anantapur, Kadapa and Chittoor districts.
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Referring to the drought conditions last year (2018) the agrometeorologist says 50 mm rainfall in red soils and 75 mm in black soils in June/July was sufficient for the sowing and for crop establishment and another 20 mm rainfall within a week later was sufficient.
“There is usually a dry spell in second half of July and till mid-August, but in a good El Nino year September/October months get most of the rain, but in 2018 both months and later in North East Monsoon meagre quantities were received,” she points out.
Kurnool district was the worst sufferer in 2018 with no sowing rains in Yemmiganur, Adoni and Panyam regions with cotton farmers losing heavily.
Groundnut sowing in Anantapur district was recommended in July 1st week, but during the 105-day crop duration in August/September/October the longer dry spells hit farmers hard.
The SHAR/ISRO along with the State government takes rainfall and temperature readings at Rekulakunta facility in Anantapur district along with the IMD, but for the past two years the SHAR/ISRO/A.P. govt. predictions have been very close to reality for specific districts/regions.