COVID-19 second wave in State may wane by July 16, says study

SRM University-A.P. has done the estimation by using govt. data and machine learning principles

The containment date was calculated as the day when the infection count touches 5% of the peak figures, says D. Narayana Rao, Pro Vice-Chancellor of SRM University, A.P.

The second wave of coronavirus has been estimated to be contained by July 16 in Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and West Bengal, according to a scientific study conducted by the SRM University-Andhra Pradesh.

The study employed Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) model by taking the official statistics on the number of infected people and those who have recovered. The SRM team comprising Dr. Soumyajyoti Biswas, an academic, and B.Tech students Anvesh Reddy, Hanesh Koganti, Sai Krishna and Suhas Reddy used the data available by the State government and applied machine learning principles to study them.

The waning time of for second wave of the pandemic have been estimated to be different for different States— May 27 for Uttar Pradesh, May 28 for Delhi, July 1 for Karnataka, July 13 for Maharashtra, July 26 for A.P. and Tamil Nadu, August 12 for Kerala and September 2 for West Bengal.

How it works

The date of containment has been calculated as the day when the sliding numbers touch 5% of the peak figures. “Our model has been validated by the actual dates in Delhi and Uttar Pradesh. Delhi witnessed a peak of 28,935 cases on April 20 and 5% of it (1,490) was predicted to occur on May 28. Delhi registered 1,491, 1,072 and 1141 cases respectively on May 26, 27 and 28,” says SRM University (A.P.) Pro V-C D. Narayana Rao, who initiated the study.

In an interview to The Hindu , he said Uttar Pradesh recorded similar figures of 3,179, 2,276, 2,014 and 1,864 on May 27, 28, 29 and 30 respectively against the estimation of 1,897, which was 5% of 37,944 cases witnessed on April 24.

Emboldened by the precision in the estimation for the northern States, the SRM team has also come up with estimated waning time for other States. Telangana touched the peak figure 11,000 on April 20 and its 5% (550) is predicted to occur on June 21. “The estimation is meant to help the industry estimate the impact of the pandemic on business, aid the education sector in planning the academic calendar and the government assess its health infrastructure,” said Mr. Narayana Rao.