India’s hopes of a membership at the Nuclear Suppliers Group this year were virtually dashed after the NSG meeting in Vienna ended inconclusively, even as experts said the process will continue in 2017. India and the U.S. had been keen to make progress on the application before the end of U.S. President Barack Obama’s tenure, and senior U.S. State Department officials had expressed optimism that it would be done by “year-end.”
According to diplomatic sources, the meeting of the NSG Consultative group in Vienna on November 11 ended much like the Seoul plenary in June 2016 without making headway on India’s application for membership. However, China’s push for a two-step process — to first identify the criteria for non-signatories to the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) — as both India and Pakistan are, was considered by the 48-nation group.
On Friday, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Nafees Zakaria claimed that the outcome was in line with its position, indicating that the decision had gone against India’s wishes. “At the 11 November meeting of the NSG, a majority of the members supported a two-step process involving: i) agreement on objective and non-discriminatory criteria and ii) consideration of applications membership for non-NPT states, the position that resonated Pakistan’s stance on the issue, vis-à-vis some of member countries’ desire to the contrary,” Mr. Zakaria said.
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The MEA declined to comment on the workings of the “closed-door” meeting of the NSG, which works by quiet consensus. However, an official said that India would prefer to wait until “more details were known” while adding that it was impossible to comment on Pakistan’s statement as it “was not in the room” during the meeting.
India’s hopes of a membership had been raised after the Seoul meeting in June over the NSG chair’s decision to mandate Argentine diplomat Rafael Grossi with working on a consensus amongst members on India’s application. However, the “Grossi process” as it was called, faltered after China refused to recognise it.
India, that has repeatedly called China the “one country” blocking its ambitions then softened its stand, conducting two rounds of talks between China’s nuclear negotiator Wang Qun and India’s Joint Secretary for Disarmament Amandeep Singh Gill on September 13 and October 31. However, China is yet to yield on India’s appeal to treat it as a special case on the basis of its unblemished nuclear record and adherence to all nuclear safeguards.
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In a statement on November 15, four days after the NSG meet, China’s Foreign Ministry said that it “any formula [for membership] worked out should be non-discriminatory and applicable to all non-NPT states; without prejudice to the core value of the NSG,” indicating its position had not changed. In the run-up to the NSG meeting India had also made a special reach out to all NSG members who held similarly hardline positions, including a last minute visit to Ireland by MEA officials, and a push for statements from visiting leaders including New Zealand PM John Key, Brazil PM Michael Temer and South African President Jacob Zuma as well as Turkish Foreign Minister and Development Minister in support of India’s membership in the past few weeks.
Experts say even if India’s efforts haven’t borne fruit, the process had not ended.
“No, its not a setback,” G. Balachandran, consulting fellow at the government think-tank Institute of Defence and Strategic Analysis (IDSA) told The Hindu. “It all depends on how India approaches the issue, and how much flexibility the government shows on allowing a reference to the Non Proliferation Treaty, as that is what many members would like to see.”
While references to the NPT would be seen as a departure from India’s traditional position, some suggest that if India has succeeded in negotiating with Japan, Australia and Canada, some of the formerly non-proliferation hardliners, the NSG is still a possibility by June 2017, when the next plenary session of the NSG will be held.