The unusual heat wave in May, followed by the delay in monsoon by a week, is a definite manifestation of climate change, Union Minister for Earth Sciences Harsh Vardhan said on Tuesday.
Announcing the likelihood of a deficient southwest monsoon this year, Mr. Vardhan said the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had downgraded its earlier April prediction from 93 per cent to 88 per cent this month. The IMD’s June forecast comes with a margin of error of 4 per cent of the Long Period Average, and is considered more accurate than the April prediction.
He said northwest India is likely to receive 85 per cent rainfall with a margin of error of 8 per cent. Speaking at the launch of the super computer ‘Bhaskara’ to better compute climatic changes at the National Centre for Medium Range Forecasting, he said the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala is likely around June 5.
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“It’s not just another unusually hot summer, it is climate change. Let us not fool ourselves that there is no connection between the unusual number of deaths from the ongoing heat wave and the certainty of another failed monsoon,” the Minister said.
Highlights:
| 1 | Rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2015 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is likely to be deficient (<90% of Long Period Average.) |
| 2 | Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 88% of the LPA with a margin error of ±4%. |
| 3 | Region wise, the season rainfall is likely to be 85% of LPA over North-West India, 90% of LPA over Central India, 92% of LPA over South Peninsula and 90% of LPA over North-East India all with a margin error of ± 8 %. |
| 4 | The monthly rainfall over the country as whole is likely to be 92% of its LPA during July and 90% of LPA during August both with a margin of error of ± 9 %. |