As leaders of a range of Opposition parties — including serving Chief Ministers — arrived in Patna on Friday to watch the installation of the Nitish Kumar-led Grand Coalition government in Bihar, the message that went out was that there was a real possibility of an anti-BJP bloc being built up in the coming months.
On Friday, as Mr. Kumar took oath before a rapturous audience, and National Conference leader Farooq Abdullah — a veteran of Opposition unity efforts over the past three decades — declared, “ Nitish ji ko ab tayyiari karni chahiye Dilli aane ki aur agla Pradhanmantri banne ki, ” (Nitishji should now get ready to move to Delhi as the next Prime Minister), it almost looked doable. Mr. Kumar has a decade long track record of governance, with appeal cutting across class lines.
But that is still almost four years away in 2019.
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For the moment, only two things can be said with any degree of certainty: with the results of the Bihar polls robbing Prime Minister Narendra Modi of his air of invincibility, the Opposition parties have not just got breathing space in which to work together, but have learnt the merits of the index of Opposition unity that played a key role in the Grand Coalition’s victory in Bihar.
For a start, West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry and Kerala will all go the polls in mid-2016 and Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Goa in the first half of 2017.
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In Trinamool Congress-ruled West Bengal, the BJP is at number four anyway, even as there has been talk of the Congress and the Left Parties coming together. Can that happen without affecting the Left versus Congress politics of Kerala (currently ruled by the Congress-led UDF) and Tripura (ruled by the Left)? Or will the Trinamool, as insurance, do a deal with the Congress?
In Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry, the Congress and the BJP can at best, as in the past, attach themselves to one of the Dravidian parties, the DMK or the AIADMK.
Only in Assam, taking a leaf out of its Bihar experiment, where the Congress will complete 15 years in power in 2016, is the party seriously considering either an alliance or seat adjustments with the Badruddin Ajmal-led AIUDF to take on the BJP.
In Kerala, it will once again be a battle between the two fronts led by the Congress and the Left Parties, with the BJP trying to nibble away at their constituencies.
Turn to 2017 and the key state of Uttar Pradesh: as things stand, it looks like a triangular fight between the ruling Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the BJP, with the Congress a poor fourth. The BJP is clearly not in the shape it was in 2014, but it looks near impossible for a Bihar-like Grand Coalition of the SP, the BSP and the Congress emerging here. At best, the Congress and the BSP could come together, but only if the Congress is agreeable to playing second fiddle.
In Patna, on Friday, Delhi Chief Minister and AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal may have shared a stage with Congress leaders, but in Punjab, they will contest against each other, and the Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP combine (if that remains intact).
So, while the impact of the Bihar results will certainly be felt when Parliament commences next week for the winter session on November 26, when the Opposition parties will coordinate their activities to isolate the BJP-led NDA, it is a long way away from an electoral front that can take on the NDA.
The Opposition parties are certainly in a more ebullient mood but in the months to come as they all seek to grow, especially, the Congress, they will jostle for political space with each other as much with the BJP.