Migrant voters deciders in 25 seats in UK election: Study

Voters who were born in India but settled in the United Kingdom form the largest grouping in a voter block represented by just under four million foreign-born migrants to the United Kingdom. Pakistan-born voters form the second largest group, followed by those from Ireland, Bangladesh, Nigeria and South Africa.

Migrant voters will help decide the outcome of elections in around 25 seats across England and Wales where they are a third of the electorate, and in around 50 seats where they are at least a quarter of the electorate.

These are among the findings of a recent survey entitled ‘Migrant Voters in the 2015 General Election’ by Robert Ford from the Centre on Dynamics of Ethnicity, University of Manchester, and Ruth Grove-White from the organisation Migrants’ Rights Watch.

The 2015 election may also be the first one that has constituencies — the study projects those of East Ham and Brent North as examples — where a majority of the electorate was born abroad, in other words which have majority migrant electorates.

London has by far the largest migrant vote, with 19 of the top 20 seats that has the largest migrant voter share and over 40 of the top 50 seats.

The study uses 2001 and 2011 census data to project estimates of the overall migrant population in each parliamentary constituency, and data on naturalisation rates of different migrant groups from computations made by the Office for National Statistics.

What are the implications of this voter demographic in an election considered by pollsters to be the most unpredictable of British elections?

Migrants as a group are highly diverse and so too their voting behaviour. However, they are more likely that not to be unified on the issue of immigration, which is set to be at the top of the election agenda of the main political parties. In an election, most migrants would reject candidates and parties that are anti-immigrant or anti-immigration, or who carry messages that hint at racism or xenophobia.

The United Kingdom Independence Party has staked its political future on its strong anti-immigration and anti-European Union positions. It has seen a surge in support by its clever exploitation of the popular anxieties around immigration.

The party wants much higher immigration controls, and demands that Britain pull out of the EU. Worried at the possible electoral appeal of the UKIP’s political message, the Conservative Party, and to a lesser extent the Labour Party too, is talking tough on immigration. David Cameron, Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader has promised an in-out referendum on the EU issue in 2017 if voted to power.

It is therefore not just the surge in the numbers of foreign born contestants that will make this election different, it is equally how migrant concerns will shape the election message, mood and outcome.