The blue wave: rise of the Democracts in the U.S. midterm polls

Triumphant moment: Nancy Pelosi and Ben Ray Lujan celebrating the Democratic takeover of the House | AFP

In the midterm elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, the Democrats secured a majority by defeating the Republicans with a 6.5% point margin and achieved a 4.4% swing from the 2016 Presidential poll.

They gained substantially in the key swing States and made a dent in Republican strongholds.

Rise of the Democrats

The graph plots the margin of win/loss in 2018 for the Democracts against change in vote % since 2016 in 387 Congressional districts* (represented by circles).

The Democrats increased their vote share in 75% of those districts compared to 2016.

 

In swing States

Of the 109 districts in the nine swing States, the Democracts lost 64 and won 45. But only in 18 districts did their vote share drop as compared to the 2016 elections. A look at these districts:

 

Source: David Wassermann and Ally Flinn, Cook Political Report