Much about British Prime Minister Theresa May’s keenly anticipated Brexit speech on Tuesday — delivered in the same room in which Margaret Thatcher pledged nearly three decades ago to make a “success of the single market” — had already been briefed about in the days prior to the speech. Still there was great pressure on the Prime Minister on many counts: not only was she expected to offer the clarity that the public, markets, businesses, and EU leaders sought about the shape and direction of Brexit, but the speech also needed to satisfy the staunch Eurosceptics within her own party.
As someone who had backed the Remain camp in the run-up to the referendum, the pressure has remained on Ms. May to show off her “Brexit” credentials. It is thought to be one of the reasons behind her tough rhetoric on EU membership in the past few months.
As anticipated, while shying away from the labels of “soft” and “hard” Brexit, Ms. May signalled that her government would indeed be pushing for a clean break.
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“What I am proposing cannot mean membership of the single market,” she told those gathered. “That agreement may take in elements of current single market arrangements in certain areas — on the export of cars and lorries for example, or the freedom to provide financial services across national borders — as it makes no sense to start again from scratch when Britain and the remaining member states have adhered to the same rules for so many years.”
She also gave the clearest signal yet that the government intended to leave the customs union — although potentially remaining a “signatory to elements of it”.
She was conciliatory at points. “We are leaving the EU, but we are not leaving Europe,” she said, though the speech ended on a distinctly defiant tone, as Ms. May warned of the “calamitous self harm” that the EU would do itself should it listen to the “voices calling for a punitive deal that punishes Britain”. “If we were excluded from accessing the single market — we would be free to change the basis of Britain’s economic model,” she said, a likely reference to comments fellow members of her government had made about lowering tax rates in a bid to attract more international business in the wake of Brexit.
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Parliament to vote
In one of the most significant concessions so far made, she said Parliament would now get a vote on the final deal before it was implemented though it’s notable that she declined when questioned further by journalists to confirm whether this would be a binding vote that could potentially block the deal.
The speech is of course significant to India and the 800-odd Indian companies with European headquarters in London. While this week the new Indian High Commissioner to London said he saw Brexit as more of an “opportunity”, Indian companies have traditionally viewed Britain as their main gateway to Europe, and in anticipation of a potential hard Brexit, had begun to obtain the necessary licences to operate in the region.
Ms. May’s emphasis on immigration controls — though focused on EU citizens during the speech — was also significant, signalling that the toughening of overall immigration policy is unlikely to end any time soon. Ms. May said that while Britain hoped to continue to attract the “brightest and best to work or study in Britain”, the process had to be managed properly “so that our immigration system serves the national interest”.
The Prime Minister also highlighted Britain’s eagerness to forge relations with nations beyond the EU, pointing to India, along with New Zealand and Australia as countries on which discussions on future trade ties had already commenced. “It is clear that the U.K. needs to increase significantly its trade with the fastest growing export markets in the world,” she said.
In short, Ms. May certainly delivered greater clarity on Britain’s negotiating stance — at least as much as she says she is willing to say without compromising the U.K.’s negotiating stance.
However, at the end of the day with its highly optimistic outlook — aiming to end freedom of movement across the EU and maintaining a tough line on immigration, while negotiating beneficial free trade deals globally — the speech’s real test will be its reception by governments in the EU and across the world.