Did the floods drown AIADMK?

The ruling party won just six seats in Chennai.

For many of the city’s residents, the floods and its aftermath are a stark reminder of the government’s failure on multiple fronts — File Photo

There is no doubt now that the Chennai floods did have an impact on electoral outcomes, against the ruling party. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) has won 10 of the 16 constituencies in Chennai district, thereby regaining lost ground in what was, until a decade ago, its stronghold. In the 2011 Assembly elections, the DMK had won in only two constituencies in the district — Kolathur and Chepauk-Triplicane.

Before the elections, there was a strong indication that the floods in December 2015 that ravaged many parts of the city — more precisely, the alleged mismanagement of the situation during the crisis — was going to be a major factor shaping the outcome of the results in Chennai district.

With the AIADMK taking only six seats, clearly that belief has been borne out, to some extent.

Former IAS officer and urban planning expert M.G. Devasahayam, who has been campaigning against unplanned development, said floods had a “psychological” impact on the voters of the city. “The general impression is that AIADMK government had failed during the deluge,” said Mr. Devasahayam, adding that successive governments had failed to address issues that contribute to the flooding of the city during a heavy monsoon.

Resentment over relief

“Urban sprawl and unmitigated violation of the master plan provisions have not been addressed at all,” he said. The DMK campaign for the Assembly elections focussed primarily on flood damages in Chennai.

The devastating effect of the floods on the Saidapet constituency is believed to have partly contributed to the loss of AIADMK’s C. Ponnaiyan to DMK’s M. Subramanian by a margin of 16,255 votes. Resentment among voters over the initial relief operations and non-disbursal of the flood relief amount of Rs. 5,000 in some parts are said to be a reason. On the polling day, a number of voters in constituencies such as Thousand Lights and Anna Nagar reportedly pointed out that Rs. 5,000 announced by the government as financial assistance had not reached them. Many voters with such grievances are believed to have voted for the DMK.

Choice gone wrong?

The choice of candidates for constituencies in Chennai district by the AIADMK high command could also be counted among factors that led to the outcome, some observers commented.

They hinted that among such AIADMK candidates were J.C.D. Prabhakar, Gokula Indira and Valarmathi, who might have enjoyed greater advantage in their home turf, but lost out in the new constituencies.

Offering a contrarian viewpoint, some political observers said that it was actually a surprise that the AIADMK managed to win even six seats in the city.

The ‘guaranteed’ seat for the party was only R.K. Nagar where Chief Minister Jayalalithaa was contesting for the second time (she fought and won the by-election in June 2015). At one point, the resentment against government inaction was so high that it was expected that the ruling party would be routed in Chennai. That did not happen, however.

While Ms. Jayalalithaa’s victory was a forgone conclusion, the wins of AIADMK candidates Sathyanarayanan in T. Nagar, R. Nataraj in Mylapore, V.N. Virugai Ravi in Virugambakkam, P. Vetrivel in Perambur and D. Jayakumar in Royapuram need to be analysed systematically.

Of these, at least three areas suffered from the ravages of the floods, so did these candidates win on the strength of the campaign, or were there other factors at work — including the promises (freebies) of the manifesto, the crediting of the relief amount within the stipulated time and the welfare schemes such as Amma Canteens?