Bengaluru Urban, which had been reporting nearly 75% of the total caseload, is now seeing a steady decline in cases. Districts other than Bengaluru are contributing over half of the caseload in the State for the last one week.
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From an average of 24,000 cases a day since January 18, Bengaluru Urban reported the highest single-day spike on January 20 with 30,540 cases. Subsequently, there has been a decline with 19,105 cases on Tuesday and 22,427 on Wednesday, further reducing its contribution to 45.8% of the total caseload.
The daily TPR has been hovering around 20% in this district since then.
As of January 25, three districts, Mysuru, Hassan and Mandya, together contributed nearly 15% of the total caseload while 53% was from Bengaluru Urban.
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The daily test positivity rate (TPR) was the highest in Mysuru at 38.09%, followed by Tumakuru with 38.35%. On January 23, Chickballapur recorded the highest daily TPR at 50.43% followed by Mandya with 40.48%.
The scenario was different a week ago (week ending January 18) when Bengaluru Urban reported 66% of the total caseload. Six districts, Mysuru, Tumakuru, Hassan, Dakshina Kannada, Mandya, and Kolar, contributed 15% of the caseload.
On January 26 too, Mysuru, Mandya, Hassan, and Tumakuru reported a similar trend recording over 2,500 cases each.
The State’s seven-day running TPR stands at 21.83% as of January 25. This parameter (TPR) is higher than the State average in nine districts: Tumakuru, Mysuru, Mandya, Kolar, Hassan, Chickballapur, Bengaluru Urban, Ballari, Chamarajanagar, and Chitradurga. Tumakuru has recorded the highest seven-day running TPR at 38.15% followed by Mysuru at 37.70%.
K.V. Trilok Chandra, BBMP Special Commissioner (Health), said going by the trend in the last four days, it looks as though cases are stabilising. “However, we need to wait and observe till the weekend to actually conclude that Bengaluru has crossed over its peak,” he said.
State Health Commissioner D. Randeep said the caseload is stabilising in Bengaluru Urban now as it was the first to witness a surge in the State. “We have noticed that there is always a lag of two-three weeks between Bengaluru and the rest of Karnataka. It was a similar trend in the last two waves too,” he said.
Attributing the surge in the rest of Karnataka now to movement of people between the State capital and other districts even when the weekend curfew was in place, the Commissioner said, “We expected this surge in the districts. Our District Health Officers are well prepared. We presume that the surge in the peripheral districts will start stabilising by the first week of February.”
M.K .Sudarshan, chairman of the State’s COVID-19 Technical Advisory Committee (TAC), said the surge in districts is a spillover from Bengaluru, mainly due to movement of people. “This is a regular pattern.” As per projections, the third wave is likely to stabilise in the entire State by end of February, he added.